534
FXUS64 KTSA 200130
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
830 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The main updates made earlier this evening have been to adjust
PoPs during the late afternoon and early evening (thru 03z),
raising them to the north and west of Tulsa where storms have been
concentrated thru the late afternoon and into the evening. A
supercell tracked across Pawnee county earlier and produced
reports of 70+ mph winds, wind damage and golfball size hail.
Overall storm intensity trend has been downward over the past half
hour or so with the loss of daytime heating, so the bulk of the
severe threat is likely done. The 03z-06z forecast of lower PoPs
and farther south and east placement is trending well with radar
and will leave that alone.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Persistent ongoing corridor of elevated convection across SE KS
is expected to remain north and east of the local forecast area,
while new storm development across far western AR marks the
location of the sfc boundary that extends through north central
OK. Convective temps will likely be met within the weak
convergence zone with scattered storms developing over the next
couple of hours and spreading into northeast OK this evening.
Locally damaging outflow winds and brief instances of large hail
will be possible with the strongest storms. The window for severe
potential will become to close after sunset and the severe risk is
likely over by midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The weak remnant sfc boundary will be aligned more east/west and
remain near the northern periphery of the local forecast area
Friday into Saturday. This zone will maintain at least low storm
chances daily however guidance remains consistent in keeping the
overall coverage very low. Otherwise, the continued heat will be
the primary weather impact through Saturday with near record high
temps expected on Friday. Dewpoints have stubbornly overachieved
today despite a lack of recent rains and if this trend remains in
the forecast then heat advisories may be posted.

Sunday evening through early Monday will mark the most likely
time for the cold front passage and associated high chances of
more widespread rains. Unfortunately, widespread meaningful rains
do not appear likely as forecast amounts remain rather light for
most locations, however any rainfall will be welcome. Noticeably
cooler temps for early next week with a few days falling below
seasonal normals. Rain chances return by mid week with
temperatures moderating to nearer mid September normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Ongoing scattered storms should remain north of the I-44 corridor
through the next couple of hours before dissipating. Did include
a TEMPO group for BVO for a thunderstorm or two through 03z,
though confidence of direct impact to the terminal is not high.
Forecast confidence is even lower for storms surviving and
impacting TUL and RVS. Thus, left out any mention of TS from the
TAFs for now. Will amend TAFs if necessary. Otherwise and
elsewhere, VFR is expected to prevail at all terminals through the
next 24 hours, with BKN mid/high level clouds through the period
and light-moderate (10 knots or less) S/SW winds through the
daytime Friday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  99  77  98 /  50  10  10  10
FSM   73  98  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   74  99  74  97 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   70 100  73  99 /  50  10  20  10
FYV   72  95  72  93 /  10  20  20  20
BYV   72  95  73  92 /  10  20  20  30
MKO   74  97  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   72  97  74  95 /  30  10  20  20
F10   74  99  74  97 /  20  10   0  10
HHW   71  98  72  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67