262
FXUS64 KTSA 031514
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1014 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

   - Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and storms through
     the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall, downburst winds, and
     lightning will be the primary hazards.

   - Humid conditions will return by the end of this week with
     heat indices reaching 95-100 F across the area by Saturday
     and continuing through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 956 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A band of showers and thunderstorms centered from north-central
into southeast Oklahoma will gradually shift northeast and
diminish during the early afternoon hours. A few embedded
thunderstorms are expected, but no severe weather. However, as
moisture content remains quite high, pockets of flash flooding
remain possible under any heavier storms.

The widespread cloud cover, particularly for Oklahoma, will keep
temperatures below normal once again. High temperatures will
mostly be in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Showers and storms will diminish Thursday evening, though at least
spotty light showers may persist through the night. Additional
expansion of showers thunderstorms are anticipated late Thursday
night into Friday morning as a weak trough moves across the plains
to our north. PWAT values will be approaching 2 inches in some
places by that time, so any more organized cells could produce
localized heavy rain, with emphasis remaining across eastern OK
in proximity to deepest moisture. By late afternoon and evening
the overall forcing weakens and shifts north, but with deep
moisture remaining in place at least a low threat of a shower or
storm will persist through the evening of the 4th, however most
locations should remain dry.

As we move into next week, the upper ridge becomes established
over the southwest states, with local area remaining under weak
NW flow. The overall pattern favors a return to temps closer to
normal, but will also maintain at least low thunderstorm chances
for some areas through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms at the start of the forecast
period will lower ceilings and visibilities at KMLC. Additional
showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, with the best
chances at the eastern Oklahoma sites and at KFSM. VFR conditions
will prevail outside of storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  71  89  74 /  30  10  30  20
FSM   90  73  92  74 /  20   0  20  10
MLC   86  70  89  72 /  60  20  30  10
BVO   88  68  89  72 /  30  10  30  20
FYV   89  68  90  71 /  10   0  20  10
BYV   90  69  90  70 /   0   0  20  10
MKO   86  70  87  72 /  30  10  30  10
MIO   89  69  90  71 /  10   0  30  10
F10   85  70  87  72 /  50  10  30  10
HHW   85  72  88  72 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05