792
FXUS64 KTSA 101129
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Weak E-W oriented upper trough axis drifting into the NE OK today
will bring some increase in mid cloud cover, along with low
chances for a few showers and isolated thunder. Otherwise, a warm
day is expected areawide with afternoon high temps some 5 to 10
degrees above seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

The upper trough axis will continue to drift through the rest of
the forecast area tonight and into Friday, with low chances for
showers and isolated thunderstorms expanding some to the south
later tonight and into Friday. This upper feature will dissipate
during the day Friday so will not include PoPs after 18z. Warm
weather will continue areawide into the weekend with a very warm
afternoon expected Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.
The dry boundary will move through the area Sunday, though
locations roughly south of I-40 wont see frontal passage until
after peak heating, so another warm afternoon is expected for
those locations. Cooler temperatures settle across the area by
Monday, with a secondary/reinforcing push of cooler air arriving
overnight Monday or early Tuesday. Some extended guidance
indicates low QPF signals Tuesday, but will leave PoPs out at this
time. Cool and dry weather is expected to prevail for the
remainder of the forecast cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Mid/high clouds will continue spreading into eastern Oklahoma
today in association with approaching mid level disturbance.
A few isolated showers/thunderstorms are still possible across
aforementioned area through tonight, but for now only included
PROB30 group for MLC after 06Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
persist with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  58  88  60 /  20  20   0   0
FSM   87  58  88  58 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   88  59  88  61 /  10  40  10   0
BVO   87  53  91  55 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   86  55  86  56 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   85  56  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   83  58  86  59 /  10  20   0   0
MIO   86  57  87  58 /   0  10   0   0
F10   84  58  88  60 /  20  30   0   0
HHW   85  57  87  58 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...12