Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
457 FXUS64 KTSA 161133 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 633 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 632 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather through Friday. - A cold front brings shower and storm chances Friday night into Saturday with a risk of severe weather Saturday afternoon into the evening. - A brief cool down Sunday then temperatures roller coaster next week. Additional rain chances remain low and mainly across far eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The anomalously strong ridge centered just to our east will begin to break down and slide east as a closed low over the Great Basin lifts northeast into the Rockies today. Some mid and high level moisture associated with a trough over Mexico will begin to encroach on the western side of the ridge late in the day otherwise expect another warm and sunny day. Temperatures will remain in the 80s with a few upper 80s possible near the Red River. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Temperatures climb a few more degrees on Friday as the mid level flow turns more southwesterly and strengthens ahead a shortwave trough digging into the Desert Southwest. This will set the stage for moisture return from the western Gulf Friday into Saturday and an increase in shower and storms chances as a long wave trough becomes positioned over the center of the country. The main change with this forecast is continuation of much above normal temperatures on Saturday as the eastward progression of the trough slows and the frontal passage is delayed some. Some short term guidance hints at low shower chances as early as Friday morning as the shortwave lifting out of Mexico crosses the ArkLaTex though confidence is too low to add PoPs. A better convective threat will occur ahead of the frontal boundary across central Kansas into northwest Oklahoma Friday afternoon as height falls encounter a somewhat capped but moderately unstable airmass. Persistent moisture advection through the night and lift from a shortwave rotating around the base of the through is expected to keep some of this activity going into northeast Oklahoma through the morning Saturday. As the mid-level trough strengthens and sharpens during the day across the central Plains, a surface low is expected to form along the cold front and move east. Moderate to strong instability within the warm sector along with sufficient deep layer shear will support the threat for severe storms as activity reforms along the front during the afternoon. Currently the greatest coverage and potential for severe storms exists across far eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas however this could change if the system slows further. A strong push of dry air behind the front and the eastward progression of the trough axis will bring an end to the storms shortly after midnight. Afternoon RH values may briefly fall to near or below 30 percent on Saturday west of U.S. 75 as a prefrontal trough/dryline surges east. Temperatures will cool to near or just below seasonal averages Saturday night and Sunday in the dry, post-frontal airmass. The mid- level ridging may continue to be held at bay by another southern stream system as the synoptic pattern becomes more progressive early next week with a series of waves moving across the CONUS. Moisture returning ahead of the first system will provide low rain chances late Monday into Tuesday mainly across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Localized fog once again this morning affecting BVO/FYV through about 14z, otherwise VFR conditions expected at all sites this forecast period. High clouds expected to overspread the area from the south today and tonight. Light wind becoming southeast 8-12kt mid morning through the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 66 88 68 / 0 0 0 40 FSM 86 65 88 68 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 87 64 88 68 / 0 0 10 20 BVO 84 61 87 63 / 0 0 10 60 FYV 82 61 84 64 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 82 62 83 65 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 84 65 86 68 / 0 0 0 20 MIO 82 64 84 65 / 0 0 0 50 F10 85 63 87 68 / 0 0 0 20 HHW 84 63 85 68 / 0 10 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...69