251
FXUS64 KTSA 300522
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

 - Shower and storms chances increase west to east Wednesday
   afternoon/evening for eastern Oklahoma and Wednesday night into
   Thursday morning for northwest Arkansas.

 - Several periods of a heavy rain threat as well as limited
   severe weather potential exists Wednesday night and Thursday.
   Heavy rain potential tapers off during the day Friday.

 - Above normal temperatures continue Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Area of low pressure moving into the Desert Southwest Tuesday
night will continue its easterly movement just behind the
remnants of tropical system Polo lifting northeast over New Mexico
and the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning. East of these systems, mostly cloudy skies become common
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas which will help to
keep low temperatures early Wednesday morning in the mid 60s to
mid 70s forecast.

During the day Wednesday, as the remnants of Polo lift northward
into the central Plains, the area of low pressure will move out
into the southern Plains. Ahead of the approaching low pressure
system, gusty southerly winds and above seasonal average
temperatures are forecast for the CWA, while cloud cover remains
scattered/broken. The gusty southerly low level flow will help
moisture advection with precipitable water values in excess of 2
inches spread over the CWA. At the same time, as a plume of drier
air between Polo and the low pressure system moves into western
Oklahoma, a moisture boundary is progged to develop and become the
focus for convective development. Storms are forecast to develop
out west and move into eastern Oklahoma late afternoon/evening,
and continue to spread east and northeast over eastern Oklahoma
Wednesday night. This activity is currently anticipated to reach
into northwest Arkansas late Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

Instability looks to remain marginal ahead of the convective band
moving into the CWA Wednesday evening/night. However, 0-1km shear
values of 20-35KT along with pockets of 0-1km storm relative
helicity of 200+ m2/s2 are forecast Wednesday night into Thursday.
These conditions could allow for a limited severe potential to
develop as the storms move into and across the CWA. Locally
damaging wind gusts are the primary severe threat, though there
remains a non-zero potential for a quick spin up tornado along
the leading line. In addition to the severe potential, the ample
amounts of tropical moisture advecting into the region will
create a heavy rain threat which could lead to localized flooding
conditions.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Widespread showers along with chances for thunderstorms are
expected to be ongoing Thursday morning over eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas while the area of low pressure makes its way
into western Oklahoma/west central Kansas. The main convective
area is currently forecast to push east and southeast Thursday
into Thursday night with the highest PoPs across southeast
Oklahoma and western Arkansas by Thursday evening. A continued
limited severe potential as well as an ongoing heavy rain threat
remain forecast Thursday over much of the region. Like
Wednesday/Wednesday night, overall instability is forecast to be
marginal.

Behind the main area of showers/storms, scattered lighter rain
showers become possible for northeast Oklahoma by Thursday evening
and continues into Friday. This is in response to a mid level
layer of drier air wrapping into the low pressure system as it
becomes more elongated from southwest to northeast and lifts off
to the northeast. Thus, the heavy rain threat is forecast to
reside over southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas Thursday
night into Friday morning.

Also Thursday night into Friday, an upper level trof axis is
progged to move eastward across the northern Plains, and push a
trailing cold front through the Plains into the CWA. This will
also help to push the greater shower and limited storm potential
southeast through the region Friday. By Friday afternoon, the
higher PoPs look to move out of the CWA with the movement of the
cold front. Behind the front, scattered rain chances and limited
thunder potential continues Friday afternoon/evening for the CWA
while a portion of the low pressure systems trof axis holds back
over the region. Low rain chances look to linger into Saturday
night before the weak trof axis gets a push eastward from a second
upper level trof moving across the Plains. Behind the second
wave, drier conditions are forecast for next week.

When all said and done, widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 3.5
inches with locally higher amounts approaching 5 inches are
forecast Wednesday evening through Friday night. The majority of
this rainfall is current forecast Wednesday night through Friday
morning, which again could create localized flooding conditions.
The greater potential is over east central and southeast Oklahoma.

Lastly, temperatures after Wednesday are forecast to become more
fall like with high temperatures Friday in the 70s to low 80s. The
cooler conditions are forecast to remain for the weekend into
early next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds remain common over the
CWA through the TAF period ahead of an approaching low pressure
system out west. Near the end of the period and especially just
outside of this period shower and storm chances develop for
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas toward Thursday morning.
Thus, have added a Prob30 group late in the period for northeast
Oklahoma TAF sites. Winds through the period vary between east and
south tonight and become gusty from the south Wednesday. Also,
stronger winds aloft tonight will aid in low level wind shear into
Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are currently forecast for the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  86  70  76 /   0  40  90 100
FSM   72  94  74  85 /  10   0  20  80
MLC   74  94  71  83 /   0  20  80 100
BVO   68  84  66  75 /  10  40 100  90
FYV   69  90  67  83 /  10   0  20  80
BYV   71  89  71  83 /   0   0  10  60
MKO   72  91  70  79 /   0  10  80 100
MIO   71  84  69  74 /   0  10  80  90
F10   72  89  70  78 /   0  30  90 100
HHW   72  94  72  83 /   0  10  40  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...20