366
FXUS64 KTSA 111759
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1259 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

 - Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms this
   afternoon through tonight. Storms may produce severe wind
   gusts/ hail as well as very heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
   A Flood Watch is in effect from 4 PM today to 7 AM Tuesday
   morning for portions of the region.

 - Daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue this
   week, primarily across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest
   Arkansas.

 - Below average temperatures persist today through Wednesday
   before rising back to near average for this time of year during
   the latter part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Showers and thunderstorms from this morning have largely dissipated
over northeast Oklahoma/ northwest Arkansas, leaving an outflow
boundary draped across the region. This will likely be a focus for
additional thunderstorm development this afternoon with daytime
heating. Currently, highest PoPs are forecast generally along the I-
44 corridor, though at least low shower and thunderstorm chances
will exist for much of the FA today. Longwave troughing remains in
place overnight with potential for additional storm development to
the west tonight, potentially in the form of an MCV approaching from
W OK.

Given sufficiently cool temperatures aloft, some thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight may become strong to severe and produce
damaging wind gusts and hail. Additionally, given slow storm motions
with a tendency for training, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will
also be a concern this afternoon through tonight. As a result, have
issued a Flood Watch until 7 AM Tuesday for the northwestern portion
of the FA where flood potential currently appears the highest. The
forecast currently reflects rainfall amounts of 0.25-1" in this
area, with locally higher amounts up to 4" possible. However, storm
mode is likely to be messy and rainfall totals will vary, sometimes
significantly, across the area. Additionally, there remains a fair
amount of uncertainty regarding storm evolution this evening and
overnight, with recent CAMs suggesting the brunt of thunderstorm
activity could remain west of the CWA. If this becomes the favored
solution, then the current forecast is likely overdone and
adjustments to the Flood Watch and PoPs may be required for the
overnight period.

As always, please do not attempt to drive through flooded roads, and
be especially vigilant when driving at night. Outside of impacts
from thunderstorms, low temperatures generally remain in the lower
70s or upper 60s with light winds areawide.&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Showers and storms will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning for
portions of the area, but should gradually dissipate during the
morning hours similar to today. With the trough axis remaining
overhead, may see scattered thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon
with 20-40% PoPs in place for most of the FA. Low thunderstorm
chances continue into tomorrow night, but coverage and intensity are
likely to be less than tonight and last night. Low potential for
primarily diurnally driven convection will continue from Wednesday
onward with weak troughing lingering over the region... mainly
across far E OK and NW AR. By late in the extended period, SE CONUS
ridging is projected to expand westward with increasing influence on
our CWA. While low rain chances do persist into early next week, the
forecast remains predominantly dry this weekend into next week.

Temperatures will remain near to below average through mid week
before increasing back into the mid-upper 90s Thursday through the
weekend. Heat indices will also rise again, with potential for heat
headlines returning by this weekend. Overall, conditions are likely
to remain typical for August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Isolated, early afternoon convection ongoing in the vicinity of a
vort max across northeast TX will impact KMLC at the beginning of
the period. Surface boundary looks to have moved southeast of the
KMLC TAF site so opted for brief VCTS. Otherwise, falling heights
and a residual outflow boundary near the I-44 corridor will help
focus convection closer to the northeast OK terminals later this
afternoon. Coverage will be more limited across western AR but
left ongoing PROB30 there with little inhibition within a moist
summertime airmass. Outside of convection expect VFR conditions
with southerly winds at or below 10kt. Prospects that additional
storms impact northeast OK terminals overnight more uncertain
given some of the latest guidance keeps the bulk of the storms
west of the TAF sites. Given proximity of the surface boundary
and eastward translation of the mean trough maintained PROB30
between 10-14Z for northeast OK sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  73  91 /  50  40  20  20
FSM   74  96  75  95 /  20  30  20  30
MLC   72  93  73  93 /  20  30  20  30
BVO   68  88  68  90 /  60  50  20  10
FYV   69  91  68  90 /  20  40  20  30
BYV   70  92  68  90 /  20  40  20  40
MKO   71  91  71  92 /  30  30  20  30
MIO   69  89  69  90 /  40  40  20  20
F10   69  89  70  91 /  30  40  20  30
HHW   72  93  73  92 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Tuesday morning
     for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...24