761
FXUS64 KTSA 301125
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

 - Low to medium daily rain chances (20-50%) and well below normal
   temperatures forecast through the Holiday weekend.

 - Stronger cold front by mid to late next week will maintain well
   below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The current surface pattern resembles a more winter-like shallow
cold air scenario rather than a late August pattern, and this
pattern is forecast to persist today (and for the rest of the
weekend as well). The result has been and will continue to be
considerable low level cloudiness, except for some breaks in the
higher terrain areas of northwest Arkansas and far southeast
Oklahoma, and much below normal temperatures. The warmest daytime
temperatures will continue to be across far eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, with cooler readings to the west. Afternoon high
temperatures today will generally range from the upper 70s to the
mid 80s. A few showers will be possible today across the western
part of the forecast area, mainly near and west of Highway 75.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Rain chances will increase later tonight into Sunday, especially
across eastern Oklahoma, as a shortwave moves southeast across the
area, with additional rain chances Monday into Tuesday as another
shortwave moves through accompanied by a reinforcing cold front.
Unseasonably cool daytime high temperatures will continue, with the
coolest readings continuing to be in the western part of the
forecast area.

A slight warmup, but still well below normal, will take place
Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold front that will move across the
area late Wednesday night and Thursday. Much drier air will follow
this front, resulting in much below normal overnight lows to go
along with the continued much below normal daytime highs. Some of
the normally colder locations may see temperatures fall into the 40s
by late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Scattered to overcast mid and high clouds should remain common
across the CWA through the TAF period. Isolated rain showers
develop during the day for portions of eastern Oklahoma with
greater shower and storm potentials overnight tonight. Will add
Prob30 group for eastern Oklahoma TAF sites for timing of greater
potential tonight. Within the precip tonight, heavy rain and MVFR
conditions are possible. VFR conditions are currently forecast
through the period, though a brief period of MVFR conditions for
MLC/FYV remains at the start of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  67  78  65 /  20  40  40  30
FSM   86  69  83  68 /  10  10  20  20
MLC   83  67  80  66 /  20  40  40  30
BVO   80  64  78  61 /  20  50  50  40
FYV   85  64  81  62 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   85  64  80  62 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   82  67  79  66 /  10  30  30  30
MIO   84  65  79  63 /  10  30  30  30
F10   80  65  78  64 /  20  40  40  30
HHW   82  68  80  67 /  20  40  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20