846
FXUS64 KTSA 222132
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
332 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 332 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

 - Wind chill values in the teens tonight, with warmer conditions
   Friday and Saturday.

 - Rain chances develop Saturday night into Sunday night mainly
   along and south of Interstate 40 from a low pressure system and
   cold front moving through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 332 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

As of mid afternoon a surface boundary was making its way through
Eastern Oklahoma with westerly winds across much of Northeast
Oklahoma, and southwesterly winds across Southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. This boundary will continue to move through
the region with west to northwesterly winds becoming common this
evening for the CWA. In addition to the surface boundary, an upper
level trof axis is progged to drop southeast through the region
overnight reinforcing a northerly wind component into Thursday
morning. Northerly winds combined with low temps in the teens and
20s will help to create wind chill values early Thursday morning
in the teens as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Northerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures are expected
Thursday before southerly winds and warmer temperatures return
Friday into Saturday. Afternoon temperatures back in the 40s to
low 50s Friday and upper 40s to mid 50s Saturday are currently
forecast. Breezy southerly winds along with the warmer
temperatures and low humidity levels Friday afternoon could create
areas of limited fire weather danger, mainly in Northeast
Oklahoma where the lower humidity/higher winds are forecast.

Low level moisture begins to lift back into the region Saturday
ahead of a shallow cold front forecast to move into the CWA
Saturday night and Sunday morning. Latest model solutions continue
to indicate the associated colder airmass holds up across
Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas before a mid/upper
level trof axis drops southeast through the Plains Sunday night.
In response, rain chances develop Saturday evening ahead of the
front with the increasing low level moisture lifting into the
region. These rain chances are still forecast to mainly remain
along and south of Interstate 40 into Sunday and then shift
southeast and exit the CWA late Sunday night with the movement of
the mid/upper level trof.

Latest ensemble data continue to highlight the greater potential
for precipitation remaining across Southeast Oklahoma into Western
Arkansas Saturday night and Sunday. There remains some solutions
that are farther northward with their precip placement, such as
the GFS/GEFS, while the ECMWF/UKMET/GEPS/NBM are farther
southward. If precip can make it farther northward into Northeast
Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas, there remains a very low,
5-15 percent, chance for wintry precipitation across these
locations Sunday. For now will continue to side with the more
southern solutions for precipitation and carry all rain as the
precip type for the event. The greater/deeper moisture should
remain south of the Red River, and as such light QPF amounts are
current forecast for the weekend.

Looking into next week, a closed low is progged to become centered
over Southern California late weekend and then potentially become
elongated from southwest to northeast into the Southern Plains
around the middle part of next week. There remains much
uncertainty with the eventual eastward movement of this low
pressure system. For now will continue to mention a return of rain
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday for the CWA. Current
indications would suggest this next week wave could have a higher
potential for QPF across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast period
for all sites. Breezy south-southwest winds (gusting to 20-30 kts)
will continue this afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. Winds behind the boundary will become much lighter out
of the west-northwest this evening. Winds remain light overnight
(generally less than 10 kts) with mostly clear skies persisting.
Increasing clouds and wind speeds return tomorrow morning and
afternoon with the approach of another cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   23  40  18  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   23  43  21  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   22  43  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   19  37  14  48 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   19  38  13  43 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   23  37  14  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   22  40  18  48 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   22  36  15  43 /   0   0   0   0
F10   22  42  19  50 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   23  45  21  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...43