969
FXUS64 KTSA 120846
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
346 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

  - Low shower and storm chances continue over far eastern Oklahoma
    and western Arkansas today.

  - Warmer weather is on tap for this week.

  - A more unsettled weather pattern may return for the end of
    the week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

An upper low over Louisiana early this morning will lift north
northeast today. This will result in one more day of scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms across parts of northwest Arkansas
and far eastern Oklahoma today. Afternoon high temperatures will
range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Warmer weather is expected this week, with daytime highs well into
the 80s most days. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day, with
western and southern parts of the forecast area likely reaching or
exceeding 90 degrees.

An upper level storm system tracking across the northern plains
will drag a surface boundary across the area late Wednesday night
and Thursday morning, but no precipitation is expected in our area
with this system.

Southwest flow aloft will develop late this week or next weekend,
and with a weak surface boundary likely residing somewhere in the
vicinity, daily shower and thunderstorm chances will exist. The
better rain chances will likely hold off until late this weekend
into early next week, and given the overall pattern and time of
year, some severe storms will be possible. However, slowing rising
heights aloft may limit the extent of any severe weather potential
through this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Prevailing flight conditions are expected to remain mainly VFR,
with the exception of some lower ceilings later tonight on parts
of western Arkansas. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are again possible across western Arkansas this
afternoon, potentially resulting in brief MVFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  59  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   80  59  87  64 /  40  10   0   0
MLC   82  58  87  66 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   83  54  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   78  54  84  61 /  50  10   0   0
BYV   75  57  84  63 /  60  20   0   0
MKO   82  57  85  65 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   80  57  84  63 /  20   0   0   0
F10   83  58  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   81  58  86  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14