670
FXUS64 KTSA 091914
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
214 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 214 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

  - Unseasonably warm and breezy this upcoming week, with fire
    weather concerns much of the week. Friday currently poses the
    highest wildfire potential.

  - Rain/storm chances return Wednesday into Wednesday night and
    again Friday across the eastern half of the forecast area.
    There is at least a limited threat of strong to severe
    thunderstorms during both time periods.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

The center of the upper-level low, responsible for the rainfall
and cooler weather over the past 24-36 hours, continues to shift
eastward over the ArkLaTex region. Radar imagery from KSRX shows light
rain lingering across far SE OK, but precipitation should be
ending over the next hour or two and dry and tranquil conditions
will prevail through the remainder of the short-term.

Winds will remain light out of the north through the remainder of
the afternoon as surface high pressure positions itself across
north TX. High pressure will drift south this evening and will
result in light southwest winds returning by or around midnight
tonight. Substantial dry air aloft will keep skies clear and
should allow temperatures to fall near seasonal averages overnight
tonight -- generally mid-upper 30s, lower 30s in spots.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Unseasonably warm, breezy, and mostly dry weather will dominate
much of the upcoming workweek. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, afternoon high temperatures are forecast to generally
be about 15 to 20 degrees above average each day Monday through
Friday. The abnormally warm temperatures, breezy south to
southwest winds and low afternoon relative humidity values will
help cause an increase of fire weather concerns each day for at
least some portions of the forecast area. One of the more
concerning days will be on Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary
drifts southward and stalls near the OK/KS border in the
afternoon. Winds ahead (south) of the boundary will veer
southwesterly and become gusty by mid-late morning, with gusts up
to 25 mph by the afternoon. A fairly dry airmass will already be
in place and relative humidity values are forecast to drop in the
20-30 percent range in the afternoon. The RFTI forecast remains
elevated for much of northeast OK, especially locations along and
west of Highway 75. ERC`s are forecast to range in the 50 to 70
percent along and north of I-44. A Fire Danger Statement remains
likely to be needed for portions of northeast OK.

The next upper-level storm system that will impact the area will
move ashore over the west coast late Tuesday night and quickly
progress over the Southern Plains by Wednesday afternoon. Low-
level moisture and instability will advect northward late in the
afternoon and evening. Lift from the approaching shortwave trough
will provoke isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mid-
late afternoon. A few thunderstorms will have the potential to
become strong and/or marginally severe, with damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph and large hail up to 1 inch in diameter being the
main hazards. At this time, the highest threat of severe storms
will be in SE OK and west-central AR. Precipitation/storm chances
will shift east of the area early Thursday morning.

Latest 12Z model/ensemble suite continues to indicate a more
vigorous upper-level storm system moving over the Plains on
Friday, which quickly lifts northeastward over the Midwest late
Friday night. Exact track and timing of the upper low are still
uncertain and will ultimately determine the severe potential for
Friday. As the upper-low ejects off the Rockies Friday morning,
it rapidly strengthens, causing impressive 80-100 knots of 0-6 km
bulk shear to develop over the forecast area by mid-afternoon. In
a similar fashion, MUCAPE will drastically increase between
1000-2000 J/kg, simultaneously. At the surface, guidance
continues show a stout dryline that will be progressing eastward
through the daytime, with dewpoint temps in the mid-upper 50s and
lower 60s ahead of it. At this time, it appears storm initiation
will occur across far eastern OK or into northwest AR, just east
of the advancing dryline mid-afternoon, then quickly pushes east
of the forecast area by early evening. Storms that do form and
organize will be capable of all severe weather hazards. Again,
there is still lots of uncertainty at this time how the event will
evolve and better details will come in future discussions.

Confidence continues to increase that Friday will also feature a
significant fire weather setup for the forecast area, especially
across northeast OK. Very dry air, gusty south to southwest winds,
and unseasonably warm temperatures will aid in potentially
volatile fire weather conditions during the afternoon hours on the
backside of the departing upper level low. But again, Friday`s
weather conditions will highly depend on the timing and track of
the upper level low and adjustments to the forecast will likely
occur over the next few days.

A dry cold front is forecast to move through the region Saturday
morning, which should knock temperatures back down to near average
on Saturday, with temperatures quickly rebounding above seasonal
average by next Sunday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period with sfc winds below
impactful levels.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  78  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   36  75  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   35  76  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   31  79  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   33  72  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   36  72  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   36  75  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   35  74  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
F10   37  77  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   35  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30