058
FXUS64 KTSA 011133
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
533 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Cold temperatures will persist through Tuesday morning.

 - Light mixed wintry precipitation is expected for some areas
   Monday. There is a low chance for minor impacts, mainly in the
   terrain of SE OK and NW AR.

 - Temperatures warm somewhat through Wednesday before another
   potent cold front arrives, which will bring precipitation back
   to the area. Wintry precipitation is a possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A cold and dry airmass is in place with northeasterly surface flow
across the forecast area. Forecast soundings show a shallow
saturated layer developing above the cold surface air, with much
of it in the 0 to -10C temperature range. This will support areas
of drizzle and freezing drizzle once the near surface air
saturates. The most likely area for freezing drizzle will be
higher terrain areas in southeast OK and northwest AR. But some
areas north of roughly I-40 may see freezing drizzle as well. With
a marginal cold enough airmass and light precipitation rates,
impacts should overall be quite minimal. Elected to not issue a
Winter Weather Advisory given low confidence, but may locally
issue later if confidence increases in any particular areas.

Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 30s north of I-40, with
mid to upper 30s to the south. A front will approach the area
during the evening. The mid level front will feature a narrow zone
of overlapping saturation and lift within the dendritic growth
zone. CAMs are picking up on a signal for a narrow and brief band
of snow as this mid level front passes by in the late afternoon
for northeast OK and late evening in northwest AR. Overall,
accumulation will be less than a half inch, and likely nothing for
most areas, but a few flakes in the air should not surprise
anybody out and about. Colder air will spill in for the overnight
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Tuesday morning will be quite cold, with lows in the teens to low
20s across the area. However, high pressure will be south of the
area by then, so warming southerly flow will kick temperatures back
into the 40s for the daytime hours. A few locations may be as warm
as 50 under mostly sunny skies. Breezy southerly winds will keep the
warming trend in place through the middle of the day Wednesday when
a descending cold front will send temperatures quickly downward once
again. Lows on Thursday morning will range from the low 20s in the
north to the low 30s in the south. wind chills will be even colder.
Cloudy conditions with continued cold advection will result in highs
struggling to break much above the mid 30s Thursday afternoon.

Late Thursday into Friday will feature our next chance of
precipitation as another semi cut off low to the west moves across
the area. These are notoriously difficult to forecast, so
naturally the guidance remains inconsistent. But in general, some
guidance is warmer (meaning slightly above freezing) and would
result in rain. Other guidance is too far south with the storm and
we remain dry. But some guidance allows the storm to be better
timed with the cold air and we see a threat of wintry
precipitation. With all of this said, the overall picture would
suggest that the chance of wintry precipitation is low for most of
the area, with the best signal near the KS border or the higher
terrain areas of northwest AR. Hopefully we will get a better
handle on things within a day or two, but for now odds favor
little to no impacts.

Conditions will warm up and dry out once again Friday afternoon into
Saturday, but ensemble guidance suggests another cold and dry front
around next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Ongoing widespread light precip will steadily spread east through
early afternoon. A wintry mix has been reported and should
persist through the morning. Accumulations will remain light but
brief periods of light icing potential does exist for most
terminals this morning. A second narrow band of light snow is
likely to pass across NE OK into NW AR this afternoon through
early evening, again remaining light with little to no
accumulation. Overall ceilings will largely remain at low VFR
levels with flight impacts focused on the winter precip.
Conditions improve from west to east during mid to late evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   36  23  49  34 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   37  25  46  29 /  30  10   0   0
MLC   40  23  50  35 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   34  18  47  27 /  60   0   0   0
FYV   36  20  44  27 /  40  20   0   0
BYV   33  21  42  27 /  40  30   0   0
MKO   37  21  47  31 /  40  10   0   0
MIO   33  19  43  29 /  60  20   0   0
F10   37  20  49  33 /  30   0   0   0
HHW   38  24  48  31 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07