334
FXUS64 KTSA 150741
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
141 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 134 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Cold temperatures are present this morning with lows expected to
bottom out in the 30s for most spots in the next few hours, with a
few cold spots as chilly as the upper 20s. Upper level ridging will
remain firmly in place today, but will begin to shift east allowing
for increasing southeasterly wind by the afternoon. Went a few
degrees above NBM this afternoon as its often too cool in this type
of pattern, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. No rain, or
really much in the way of clouds, is expected today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 134 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

The sensible weather Saturday will be similar to today, except
breezier and increasing clouds during the day. Once again highs will
reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Late Sunday onwards the weather will
turn more interesting as an anomalously deep closed low pivots out
of the southwest US into western OK, taking on a negative tilt as it
does so. Rapid surface cyclogenesis will occur, with some
guidance showing surface pressure to the west of the area in the
980-985 mb range. There will be a strong wind response, with
surface wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range (or stronger) quite
possible, with the 850 hPa wind exceeding 60 kts. Additionally,
deep moisture will be entrained into this storm, with PWAT near or
exceeding 1.75" and IVT possibly exceeding 1200 kg/m*s. Both of
these metrics are at or near the climatological maximum for this
time of year. It`s worth noting that it`s not just unusually high
water content, MLSP will be near the climatological minimum for
mid November as well, and the mid atmospheric flow will be near
the max. EPS EFI for QPF and surface wind gusts both show values
of 0.9 to 0.95, implying a rare event. Wind shear will be very
strong, with a curved hodograph in the lower levels. The only
limiting factor may be instability, which at present isn`t shown
to be tremendous, but a few hundred Joules of CAPE are still
expected.

As for impacts, model guidance has settled in on an initial wave
of rainfall Sunday night into Monday as a weak warm front lifts
into the area. A heavier round of rain, likely with thunderstorms,
will then move in late morning into the early afternoon.
Considering everything mentioned in the previous paragraph, areas
of heavy rainfall are likely. The only thing that will keep totals
in check is the speed of the system, leading to totals of 1-3" in
Oklahoma and 0.5-1.5" for northwest AR. If a consolidated line of
storms is able to get going Monday, the strong wind shear might
result in a QLCS tornado threat, but for now the threat of severe
weather looks low.

It still looks quite cool behind this system compared to what we
have seen recently, with highs falling at least into the 50s. With
that said, model guidance is warmer for this period compared to
yesterday, so future updates may raise temperatures a bit.
Additionally, although we may see a weak trailing system Tuesday
night into Wednesday, ensemble guidance has backed down
dramatically on precip totals, with a good subset of guidance
showing nothing at all. Many locations will at least be close to
freezing by next Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  46  68  54 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   69  42  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   71  45  71  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   69  41  68  50 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   68  39  68  49 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   67  40  67  49 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   68  43  68  53 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   67  43  68  52 /   0   0   0   0
F10   69  44  69  54 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   69  42  71  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for OKZ054>058-
     061>063-066>076.

AR...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07