Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
486 FXUS64 KTSA 150029 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 729 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 728 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather through much of the work week - Thunderstorm chances return late Friday and continue through Saturday before a cold front pushes east of the region by Sunday. Severe weather potential exists. && .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 728 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Skies will remain clear or mostly clear across the area tonight with lows mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will remain light, favoring the east to southeast. A few areas may see brief patchy fog tonight but it should not be dense or widespread. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Warm and dry conditions will persist for much of the week under the influence of upper ridging, with highs remaining in the 80s through Friday (+10 to 15 deg above average). By late week, the ridge begins to weaken as the western trough begins to impinge on the Plains states. As this occurs, low level winds will strengthen out of the south, becoming gusty on Friday afternoon. This southerly flow will eventually transport better moisture back north into the CWA, but a period of limited fire weather concerns could develop Friday afternoon prior to its arrival... mainly for portions of NE OK. As with the previous forecast, winds and gusts have been increased some from the NBM on Friday which paints a broad area of 10-20 mph, gusting 20-30 mph. As aforementioned troughing ejects off the Rockies, a SW-NE oriented cold front will surge southward Friday night and Saturday. With better moisture in place by this point, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across much of the FA. While the fine details remain to be seen at this range, the environment does appear to be supportive of severe weather Saturday, possibly including tornado potential. With that said, precipitation coverage Saturday morning could be a limiting factor and will need to be considered for severe potential later in the day. The front and associated precip exits the area Saturday night with more seasonally- appropriate temperatures filling in behind it for Sunday. Going into next week, a more active pattern takes shape with potential for another storm system and temperature swings through mid week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period with clear skies and mainly light winds. Winds will favor the southeast to east overall. No rain is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 64 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 62 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 60 88 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 58 85 56 83 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 56 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 59 81 57 80 / 0 10 0 0 MKO 60 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 61 85 59 83 / 10 10 0 0 F10 61 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 60 85 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...06