864
FXUS64 KTSA 281828
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

  - Above normal temperatures expected into early next week.

  - Shower and storm chances increase Sunday night and again late Monday
    night into Tuesday. A few severe storms may develop,
    especially across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

  - Fire weather concerns will persist this afternoon with the
    warm temperatures and low humidity values, and possibly again
    Tuesday afternoon as dry and windy conditions move in behind a
    cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 1220 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Mainly sunny conditions are expected for the remainder of the day.
Breezy southwest winds will become northwest by this evening as a
dry cold front slides through from north to south. No
precipitation will occur. High temperatures will be very warm,
generally in the mid 70s to near 80 F. The combination of the warm
temperatures, breeziness, and dry conditions will promote fire
weather potential, especially in northwest AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1220 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Generally clear weather continues into Saturday, though high
temperatures will drop about 15 F behind the dry cold front from
this evening. Light northerly winds are expected. Southerly warm and
moist advection returns Sunday, just ahead of a storm system. This
system does not look very strong, with minimal instability and
moisture returning just in time for precipitation. Even so,
scattered showers (30-60% chance) and isolated thunderstorms are
possible (10-20% chance) Sunday afternoon and evening.

Warm southerly flow persists into Monday, and temperatures will
respond, jumping into the 70s to perhaps 80F in the warmest spots.
Winds will become quite gusty Monday due to the strengthening
pressure gradient, with gusts of 25-35 mph. Meanwhile, a deep upper
level closed low will begin to approach the area. Cluster analysis
reveals the primary source of model variance continues to be the
uncertainty with respect to the amplitude and timing of the leading
edge of the trough. Compared to yesterday, the timing has slowed
somewhat, mostly confining the storm threat to Tuesday now. The
slower the storm, the more of the forecast area that will be at risk
from severe weather and heavy rain.

Guidance continues to indicate 1000-2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE will develop
with a strongly veering hodograph ahead of the dry line. This will
occur with a robust LLJ and diffluence from an upper level jet.
Severe thunderstorms are definitely possible, but details remain
uncertain. Lower level specific humidity and integrated moisture
transport are both in the 97th-99th percentile for this time of
year, so the system will be unusually moist. It does still appear
that the best storm chances will be across southeast OK and west-
central AR, but the slower timing introduces at least some
potential into northeast OK as well. Total precipitation will vary
quite a bit, but some areas will likely exceed one inch with some
guidance showing the potential for several inches locally.

Behind the dry line the forecast gets tricker. Warm and windy
weather will attempt to spread back into eastern OK Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Compared to yesterday, the slower timing of
the storm will also limit the time and extent of any warm and dry
air intrusion. Accordingly, the fire weather potential is probably
lower for Tuesday than previously advertised. Some guidance is so
slow and wet the dry air never really makes it in before the cold
front arrives. However, the majority of guidance does still indicate
a window of opportunity, and given that areas west of Highway 75
are probably going to see less rainfall anyway, there may still be
a period of enhanced fire weather potential. Later Tuesday the
surface low will pass to the north, which will be impressively
deep. EPS mean for MLSP is around 990 hPa, though some guidance
deepens the low to around 980 hPa. NAEFS/EPS climatology show the
pressure minimum of the low is beneath the 1st percentile. Behind
the low, cooler air spills in with a brief period of wraparound
rainfall in the north possible (20-60% chance north of I-40).
Guidance which is slower and stronger with the low is more
widespread and heavier with the wraparound precipitation, so that
will be something to watch. Strong northwesterly winds will also
materialize for a time, with gusts of 30-45 mph.

Cooler weather is expected Wednesday-Friday with highs in the mid
50s to low 60s but also generally dry conditions outside of perhaps
a few showers in the north on Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025
Gusty southwest winds will continue at NE OK/NW AR TAF sites this
afternoon ahead of approaching cold front. Winds will begin to
subside by early evening with light northerly winds Saturday
morning behind the front. VFR conditions are expected through the
forecast period with only a few passing high clouds late tonight
into Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   40  62  35  64 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   44  67  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   42  68  39  66 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   35  60  29  63 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   37  61  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   39  57  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   40  65  37  64 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   37  57  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   41  65  38  66 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   45  71  41  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-
     011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...12