978
FXUS64 KTSA 122236
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
536 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

  - Rain chances return tonight through Monday mainly for areas
    along and north of I-44.

  - Unseasonably warm conditions through much of the week, with
    low rain chances returning next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Grassland fire weather concerns will continue through the
remainder of today especially along and west of Highway 75. Winds
will relax around sunset. Scattered showers are likely to develop
late tonight across portions of NE OK within the corridor of the
slow moving cold front with rains continuing into the day Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

The combination of showers, thick cloud cover, and the stalled
front will keep temps across NE OK cooler on Monday. Further south
and east expect another mostly clear and warm day. Rains will end
across NE OK by late afternoon with overall rainfall amounts
likely to light with minimal improvement to the expanding coverage
of dry soils.

Unseasonably strong upper ridge expands across the southern Plains
through mid week. Dry and warm weather will prevail area wide.

Potential for the next cold front is forecast in the late Friday
to Saturday time frame, with the front timed to clear the region
by Sunday. This will mark the next chance of rain and slightly
cooler temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Light to occasionally moderate showers are expected to expand late
tonight into tomorrow, with largely minor impacts primarily to
BVO and second to TUL/RVS. BVO may see periods of MVFR
visibilities after sunrise tomorrow given recent CAM output, with
confidence in anything other than VFR at TUL/RVS very low. Will
carry a PROB30 with 4SM mention at BVO, leaving anything lower
than 6SM out at TUL/RVS. Shower potential should continue through
the end of the TAF period once it starts at BVO, with the chance
lessening toward midday and the afternoon hours at TUL/RVS. The
chance of showers at the remaining terminals is very low but
nonzero and any mention will be left out for now at these sites.
Current observations and modeled ceiling output both lean toward a
very low chance of non-VFR ceilings this far east. The current
gusty winds should subside prior to the beginning of these TAFs,
with expected speeds generally under 10 kts at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  82  65  87 /  20  30   0   0
FSM   64  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   66  89  62  89 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   65  78  62  85 /  40  50   0   0
FYV   62  84  61  85 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   62  83  62  83 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   67  87  65  87 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   67  80  65  84 /  30  30   0   0
F10   67  87  63  88 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   62  87  62  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22