631
FXUS64 KTSA 201531
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1031 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A decaying band of precipitation is moving into northeast OK, and
could bring a few showers as far east as the Tulsa area before it
falls apart. Otherwise, much of the day today will feature a mix
of clouds and sun with mild temperatures in the 80s to around 90F.
Some CAM guidance brings a reinvigoration of showers or
thunderstorms by mid afternoon, but more likely any widespread
storm activity will hold off until the evening or overnight as an
upper level feature approaches the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase across the area
tonight and Sunday as an upper level disturbance rotates around
the upper trough over the area. Some locally heavy rainfall
amounts will be possible, especially in northeast Oklahoma tonight
and early Sunday.

The upper trough will remain over the area for much of the next
week, but will gradually weaken and lift northeast leaving more of
a generalized upper weakness over the area by late week. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will continue through the early part of
the week, with convective chances lessening some later in the
week and becoming more diurnally driven. Temperatures will also
slowly increase next week, but likely continue to remain slightly
below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Scattered showers/storms to our west early this morning are expected
to diminish before impacting any TAF sites in northeast Oklahoma. There
will be a greater potential for showers/storms to impact area sites later
this evening and into the overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail. However, MVFR conditions will be possible within thunderstorm areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  84  67 /  20  50  50  30
FSM   91  70  88  69 /  10  20  40  40
MLC   89  68  85  67 /  10  30  40  40
BVO   86  65  83  63 /  20  60  40  20
FYV   86  63  82  63 /  10  30  50  50
BYV   85  65  82  64 /  10  30  50  50
MKO   89  68  84  66 /  10  40  40  40
MIO   84  66  82  64 /  10  50  60  40
F10   89  68  84  65 /  10  50  50  30
HHW   89  69  87  68 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...10