200
FXUS64 KTSA 200507
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1207 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

 - Heat and humidity persist through tomorrow roughly along and
south of I-40.

 - Axis of greatest thunderstorm potential will continue to sag
southward tonight and into Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and
gusty wind potential will continue, especially Wednesday afternoon.

 - Cooler and drier conditions remain likely for the latter part of
the week and into the weekend.

 - Medium rain chances enter the forecast late in the weekend and
into early next week, along with well below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Of immediate concern into early Wednesday morning is the ongoing
thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma, as well as more isolated
activity in southwest Missouri approaching far northwest Arkansas.
The southeast Oklahoma thunderstorms have accompanied an outflow
boundary from earlier storms in southern Kansas and far northern
Oklahoma Tuesday evening. The more widespread storms will continue
to push southward, along with the boundary, which is evident on
radar and Mesonet observations in the vicinity of the Red River. The
near-term POP forecast has been adjusted to better represent these
expectations. The activity in southwest Missouri should be fairly
short-lived, per CAM trends, and will be covered with a low POP in
far northwest Arkansas through 09Z.

Regarding the heat and humidity tomorrow, there is some concern that
the northern edge of the existing Heat Advisory may not be as hot
and humid as earlier thought, given the more southern push of the
outflow this evening. This forecast incorporates some slightly lower
dew points, those offered by the short-term blend, as well as some
targeted lower high temperatures. The result is heat index values
near 105 across much of the existing advisory area, close enough to
warrant keeping the advisory out for now. That being said, it would
not surprise me to see some of it cancelled at some point early
tomorrow.

Isolated to scattered diurnal development of thunderstorms remains
expected tomorrow, with much lower coverage than seen today and
focused in southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
Locally heavy rainfall will still be a concern, as will gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

North to northeast flow aloft will exist across the region through
Friday, as the upper level ridge centers over the Four Corners
Region and extends eastward into the Central and Southern Plains.
Cooler, but still near normal, temperatures and lower humidity will
result for much of the area. Drier weather, too. As troughing
develops over the eastern United States during the weekend and into
early next week, northwest flow aloft and a portion of the upper
level jet shifts across Oklahoma and Arkansas. Seasonally high
shower and thunderstorm chances enter the forecast late in the
weekend and into early next week, with multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms expected given this pattern and an associated
increase in deep layer moisture. A cold front will move through the
area during this time frame as well, and along with what could be
persistent clouds and rainfall, well below normal temperatures will
certainly result. It definitely should not feel like August, welcome
relief from the persist heat of late.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Bulk of convection is currently focused across SE OK and spreading
southward with flight impacts decreasing over the next several
hours. Isolated showers and/or storms may persist further
north into the overnight hours but coverage is expected to be low.
Patchy fog may also develop across NE OK into far NW AR toward
sunrise. VFR conditions prevail through the day Wednesday with
isolated to scattered afternoon storms possibly developing through
west central AR with lower chances further west and north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  73  93  69 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   96  74  94  72 /  20  10  10   0
MLC   96  72  93  69 /  10  10  10   0
BVO   93  67  92  63 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   93  67  89  63 /  20   0  10   0
BYV   92  67  89  64 /  10   0  10   0
MKO   96  71  93  69 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   94  69  91  65 /  10   0   0   0
F10   95  71  92  67 /  10   0  10   0
HHW   96  73  93  71 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-072>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07