068
FXUS64 KTSA 290521
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1121 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1108 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 - Strong winds, rain, and a slight chance of thunderstorms
   continue through Saturday afternoon.

 - Very cold temperatures Sunday through Tuesday morning. There
   will be a slight chance of snow for northern areas and a
   wintry mix for southern areas on Monday. Low chance of minor
   impacts, mainly across NW AR.

 - Temperatures warm somewhat into the middle of next week before
   another dry cold front arrives. No precipitation is
   anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A deep trough is digging into the northern Plains with lee
cyclogenesis ongoing to the northwest of the area. This will
continue to tighten up the pressure gradient with strong and gusty
southerly winds. Wind gusts to 30-45 mph are expected to develop
tonight into Saturday early afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been
issued to cover this threat. Meanwhile, the low level jet has also
intensified, bringing warm and unstable air into area. Showers
and a few thunderstorms developed earlier this evening, and will
continue through the overnight hours. The better instability and
thunderstorm chance will continue across southeast OK into west-
central AR. Flood concerns are not anticipated at this time.

Upper levels will cool Saturday as the upper level low approaches,
with a reinvigoration of showers and thunderstorms, particularly for
northwest Arkansas. Total rainfall will range from 0.10 to 0.50
inches for most areas, highest in the east. A few locations may see
locally heavy rainfall of up to an inch or so. Strong gusty winds
will reverse behind the cold front, which will move through the area
midday. Winds will gust to 25-40 mph, weakening somewhat by the
evening. A few models want to mix rain and snow across the higher
terrain of northwest AR Saturday evening, but given rapid drying
behind the cold front, this seems unlikely. Temperatures will
quickly fall Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Very cold temperatures will settle in across the region by Sunday
morning, with all locations into the 20s (coldest in the north).
Wind chills will fall to 10-20 F during the morning hours.
Initially clear skies will gradually cloud over during the
afternoon, keeping temperatures down a bit, with highs in the mid
30s in the north and low 40s in the south. Low temperatures will
not be quite as chilly as the day before, but will still fall into
the 20s for most locations Monday morning.

Attention then turns to the winter weather potential. A weak upper
level low will pass over the area. Some precipitation is expected to
develop north of the low, which will mainly be north of the forecast
area. This will fall as snow as its well removed from any warm air
influences. Additional precipitation may develop across southeast OK
into west-central AR, where better warm air advection and moisture
return is expected. This would fall as rain or a mixture of rain,
snow, and freezing rain. Models have trended north with the
moisture extent (and a further north track of the low), which may
spread the threat of sleet and freezing rain further north if
trends continue. This would also reduce the potential of snow
with the deeper warm air intrusion. For now mostly maintained the
current forecast, but this will be something to watch.

By Monday evening, as precipitation wraps around the upper low,
snow may spread into portions of northeast OK and northwest AR.
For most areas this will just be flurries to a light dusting. The
best chance for a few tenths of an inch to locally up to 1 inch
of snow will be in northwest AR, especially in the higher terrain.
In summary, some minor and brief winter weather impacts remain a
possibility, especially for the higher terrain in northwest AR.
High temperatures Monday will again reach the low to mid 30s in
the north, and upper 30s in the south. One last shot of cold air
spills in for Tuesday morning, with lows in the teens to low 20s
in the north and mid 20s in the south.

Warmer and drier weather will then develop midweek with almost no
chance of precipitation. A robust but dry cold front will move
through later Wednesday. This should knock temperatures down to well
below normal on Thursday, but a quick recovery will follow on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the night. Strong
and gusty southerly winds are occurring at most locations.
Ceilings will gradually lower to IFR late tonight and early on
Saturday. Low-level wind shear is occurring in some areas, and will
be of particular concern in and near northwest Arkansas, and near
the higher terrain in southeast Oklahoma. A strong cold front will
cross the area during Saturday. Scattered showers will continue
Saturday ahead of the front. Ceilings will lift some with the
passage of the front. Skies will try to clear in parts of eastern
Oklahoma Saturday night, but cold air pouring into northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will likely keep some lower clouds
in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  46  57  25 /   0  70  70   0
FSM   59  43  54  27 /   0  90  90   0
MLC   58  45  58  26 /   0  90  70   0
BVO   55  43  54  22 /  10  60  70   0
FYV   54  40  51  22 /   0  90  90   0
BYV   54  40  51  22 /   0  90  90   0
MKO   57  45  56  25 /   0  90  70   0
MIO   55  43  51  22 /   0  90  90   0
F10   58  45  58  25 /  10  70  70   0
HHW   57  44  57  27 /   0  90  80  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Saturday for OKZ054>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...08