115
FXUS64 KTSA 080234
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
834 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 834 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

 - Areas of dense fog forecast to develop along and west of
   Highway 75 tonight.

 - Strong cold front arrives Saturday bringing much cooler conditions.

 - A storm system will bring rain to the area Monday evening,
   with some light freezing rain possible near the Kansas border
   and higher terrain in northwest AR.

 - A potentially impactful winter storm is expected to bring a
   mixture of snow and freezing rain to much of the area
   Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 834 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Areas of dense fog will likely begin to spread north across
portions of northeast Oklahoma tonight, mainly west of Highway 75.
Visibilities should begin to improve in the KMLC area as a warm
front lifts further north. A dense fog advisory has been issued
for aforementioned area overnight. Currently the fog east of
Highway 75 is not expected to be as dense as low level jet/mixing
increases overnight, but trends will continue to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

A strong cold front will barrel south during the day Saturday
bringing colder air behind it. For areas further to the north,
this will occur before daytime heating can get going, so high
temperatures will remain the 40s. The temperature forecast is
trickier elsewhere, especially for central OK and northwest AR,
where there is uncertainty with respect to the cold fronts speed
and position. So tried to take a middle of the road approach for
temperatures in these areas, with much warmer conditions near and
south of I-40. With that said, if the timing of the front is
slightly off it could result in fairly large errors in the high
temperature forecast.

Sunday will be cool and mostly quiet. Went under NBM guidance,
keeping high temperatures in the upper 30s in the north to low 40s
in the south as cool northerly flow continues. A few CAMs such as
the NAM try to generate some light showers Sunday, which if this
did occur could result in some light freezing drizzle north of
I-40. Considering the low probability and marginal impacts did not
include this in the forecast at this time. Monday also appears
similar, except with increasing clouds as warm and moist southerly
flow begins to overrun the cooler airmass in place. Model
guidance may be too warm given the shallow cold air, as is
commonly the case, but with flat or even light southeast surface
flow during the day, this should keep the winter weather potential
mostly at bay. However, some guidance such as the UKMET actually
develop some light precipitation by Monday morning. This would
again result in some very minor freezing drizzle potential in cold
spots, but the probability was still too low to include in the
grids. A slightly better chance of localized freezing rain may
occur Monday night near the KS border and the hills of northwest
AR where cold air may remain more entrenched as more meaningful
precipitation develops. Even if this does occur, impacts would be
minimal given the marginal temperatures. Elsewhere, a period of
moderate rainfall will develop. An isolated thunderstorm is
possible too (10% chance). Total rainfall will range mostly from
0.25" to 1".

Areas of precipitation continue into Tuesday morning (especially
southeast OK) as low level northerly flow becomes reestablished.
This will allow cooler air from the north to filter south, but
without a defined boundary (more of a large scale pressure
reversal) cold air advection will be slow. Some guidance such as
the GFS brings a mixture of snow and freezing rain as far south as
Tulsa by this time, while most other guidance keeps any wintry
precipitation north with just rain occurring. Given the
temperature uncertainty and generally light precipitation by this
point, have elected to keep winter weather out of the forecast for
this period as well. Highs will be cool, in the mid to upper 30s
in the north, and 40s in the south.

The real show begins late Tuesday as cold air pours into the area in
earnest with temperatures falling well below freezing for most
locations. The mid to upper level trough will swing close enough to
the region to induce cyclogenesis, with a surface low spinning up
and tracking southeast of the area. Meanwhile, warm and moist
midlevel flow within the mid to upper level diffluence will
result in precipitation developing across the area. Thermal
profiles are difficult to nail down given the competing influences
and model biases, but a mixture of all precipitation types is
expected around the area. Initially rain in the south and freezing
rain or sleet in the north will transition to snow in the north
and freezing rain in the south by the afternoon or evening.

It`s difficult to be too precise with storm details given the
lead time, but in general, amounts will probably be limited by
the amount of precipitation. It`s just not looking to be a copious
precipitation producer. Current ensemble means suggest somewhere
in the neighborhood of 0.2 to 0.3" of liquid equivalent being the
most likely outcome, with outliers showing more or less as well.
So perhaps an inch or two of snow in the north and a modest glaze
of ice are probably the most likely outcomes. Further south, a
period of freezing rain that could cause minor impacts, but not
severe ones, is also most likely.

Thursday will be cool and dry, with no additional storms expected
through the remainder of the forecast period. Though it`s probably
worth mentioning that at least some guidance is hinting at another
potential storm just outside of the forecast window.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

IFR to MVFR conditions are anticipated across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas into Saturday morning before conditions improve
behind a cold front Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  52  30  41 /  10  10   0  10
FSM   48  70  38  44 /  10  10   0  20
MLC   54  69  37  43 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   41  49  25  41 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   46  63  31  40 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   43  63  30  38 /  20  20   0  10
MKO   48  62  33  42 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   44  51  27  40 /  20  20   0   0
F10   51  61  33  41 /  10  10   0  10
HHW   58  76  43  48 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Saturday for OKZ054-055-059-
     060-064>066-071-073.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...10