615
FXUS64 KTSA 050318
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
918 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 844 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

 - Noticeably colder tonight into Friday morning.

 - Warmer temperatures over the weekend into early next week.

 - Low to medium rain chances SE OK into W AR over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 918 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

The surface boundary that moved into Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas today remained nearly stationary...in weaker
state...across the region this evening. South of this boundary
LIFR ceilings along with reduced visibility had spread across
much of Southeast Oklahoma. Over the rest of the CWA...clear skies
and light winds were common.

Meanwhile...the true cold front was still making its way
southward across Kansas and Missouri with breezy to gusty
northerly winds transporting a colder and drier airmass toward the
CWA. The wind shift to the front is progged to enter Northeast
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas over the next couple of
hours...with the colder/drier air spilling into the CWA shortly
thereafter. As the wind shift progresses into Southeast
Oklahoma...the LIFR ceilings and reduced visibility will get
pushed southward with mostly clear skies forecast by sunrise
Thursday.

With the northerly winds combined with the clearing skies and
colder/drier airmass...low temperatures are expected to fall into
the 20s across Northeast Oklahoma/far Northwest Arkansas and into
the mid/upper 30s near the Red River. These conditions will
create wind chill values in the teens to mid 20s for much of the
CWA Thursday morning.

For the evening update...have adjusted the hourly
temp/dewpoint/winds trends based on the timing and movement of the
cold front. Also...increased cloud cover across Southeast Oklahoma
for the next several hours based on latest Satellite trends.
Otherwise...the rest of the forecast seems to be handling well at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 134 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Temperatures are set to be below normal on Thursday into Friday as
high pressure builds into the region behind the cold front. Friday
morning is forecast to start out in the teens to twenties across the
area with readings rebounding to around 50 Friday afternoon.

As surface high pressure shifts to the east of the area on Saturday,
temperatures are forecast to be on the rise over the weekend. The chances
of rain return Saturday and continue into Sunday night across southeast
Oklahoma into western Arkansas as an upper level low lifts out of northern
Mexico and into the Plains. The next cold front moves through the region
dry Sunday night into Monday with colder temperatures expected as we move into
mid-week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

In the short term, low clouds/fog appear likely to develop/spread
north into the KMLC area by 01Z with the potential for TEMPO IFR
conditions this evening. Initial frontal boundary is forecast to
push through aforementioned area by late evening with low
clouds/fog lifting. Secondary surge of colder air expected
overnight with gusty north winds developing from north to south.
Gusty conditions should persist Thursday morning before decreasing
again north to south as strong surface high pressure continues to build
into the region. KMLC winds could remain gusty through mid afternoon
before subsiding. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  40  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   32  47  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   33  46  23  52 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   23  39  18  48 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   24  41  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   25  36  21  48 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   28  42  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   23  35  21  45 /   0   0   0   0
F10   30  42  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   38  50  27  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12