128
FXUS64 KTSA 010332
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1032 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

High pressure centered over the upper Midwest ridging into the
Southern Plains this evening resulting in slightly lower dewpoints
across the northern areas, which saw some relief from the heat this
afternoon. With a weak boundary across the area, some potential for a
few showers or thunderstorms to redevelop overnight. Latest radar
data indeed indicate a couple showers developing at this time over
west central AR. Will maintain very low pops overnight areawide for
this potential. Temps across the north have already fallen into the
mid 70s, a category or so from forecast overnight lows. Just minor
changes to forecast elements this evening, as ongoing forecast
trending well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Hot and humid conditions overspread the entire forecast area
tomorrow and generally through late week. The aforementioned
decaying frontal zone may act to focus a corridor of higher
dewpoints through the day Monday and possibly allow for isolated
to scattered storms. Otherwise, the primary weather impact will be
dangerous heat index and wet bulb globe temps. A heat advisory has
been issued and portions of the area may need to be upgraded into
warning criteria pending forecast dewpoint trends.

Upper ridge strengthens over the region Tuesday into Wednesday and
chances for daily thunderstorms will trend down. Temperatures will
be trending upward and likely combine with persistent high
dewpoints to yield a continuation of dangerous heat levels.
Expect heat headlines to extend for several days.

Upper ridging begins to weaken by late week and an initial cold
front may approach NE OK by late Wednesday though likely stalls
just north of the region. This corridor may be near enough to
allow a low chance of storms into NE OK. Otherwise the pattern
will begin to feature a building ridge aloft through the western
CONUS and downstream troughing aids a stronger cold frontal push
into the southern Plains Friday into the weekend. Most of the
guidance remains persistent with the cold front making it through
the entire forecast area bringing a chance of showers and storms
along with cooler temps by next weekend. However, there does
remain a subset of solutions with a lesser aggressive frontal push
and summertime cold fronts can often leave you disappointed, so
uncertainty remains in the latter part of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. Some periodic mid and
high cloud overnight may be accompanied by some low cloud across
NE OK and NW AR on Monday morning, but confidence isn`t great
enough to insert any cigs into the TAFs. Some sct cu and high
cloud can be expected during the afternoon. Chances for storms too
low to mention at any site.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  97  80  99 /  20  20  10   0
FSM   77  94  74  98 /  20  20  10   0
MLC   75  96  77  97 /  20  20  10   0
BVO   72  96  77  99 /  20  20  10   0
FYV   71  92  70  95 /  20  20  10   0
BYV   69  90  69  96 /  20  20  10   0
MKO   75  94  75  96 /  20  20  10   0
MIO   71  93  75  96 /  20  20  10   0
F10   74  96  77  96 /  20  10  10   0
HHW   75  94  75  95 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30