251
FXUS64 KTSA 191144
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
644 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 248 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

  - Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are
    expected this weekend. All severe hazards are possible, with
    large hail being the most likely hazard type.

  - Prolonged heavy rainfall will likely result in areas of flash
    flooding and main stem river flooding this weekend.

  - Drier weather returns early next week, but unsettled weather
    resumes by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

The frontal boundary continues to sag slowly south early this
morning, and currently extends from near Fayetteville to
McAlester. This boundary may move a bit farther south this
morning, especially as current convection continues and additional
showers and storms approach southeast Oklahoma from the southwest
early this morning and help to reinforce the boundary to the
south.

The overall severe weather threat is slowly diminishing at this
time, but isolated severe storms will remain possible through
about mid morning across parts of western Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also continue
to be a concern early this morning, especially across parts of far
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

We should see a relative break later this morning through much of
the afternoon, with a more general light to moderate rainfall and
perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, but little risk of severe
weather. Temperatures today will not warm much, with daytime highs
just a few degrees above the current readings, and even below the
current readings in parts of southeast Oklahoma where convection
will arrive over the next few hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will ramp up again this evening and
overnight as the main upper level storm system approaches from the
west. Severe storms and heavy rainfall will again become a major
concern, especially by late tonight into Sunday as the frontal
boundary tries to lift north. Large hail is likely to be the main
severe weather threat, but an increasing threat of all hazards
may begin to develop by late tonight depending on just how far
north the frontal boundary lifts.

The severe weather and heavy rain threat will continue into
Sunday, with an enhanced severe weather threat in northwest
Arkansas by Sunday afternoon where more surface heating may occur
prior to the passage of a cold front.

Any lingering showers and storms will end quickly Sunday evening,
with dry and mild weather then expected for Monday and Tuesday.
Unsettled weather returns Wednesday through the end of the week as
weak shortwaves traverse the established southwest upper flow
pattern. This pattern is consistent with scattered showers and
storms just about every day, but not with many periods of
categorical pops as shown by the NBM, and have thus lowered NBM
pops during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Multiple rounds of showers and storms will continue to spread
across the CWA today and tonight while a frontal boundary holds
over the region. Within the convection, periods of IFR/MVFR
conditions, gusty winds and heavy rains are forecast through the
period. Outside of the stronger convection, conditions varying
between IFR to low end VFR are forecast today, with the greater
potential of getting back to VFR in southeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, south of the boundary. This evening into
tonight as the greater storm potentials move over the CWA,
IFR/MVFR conditions are forecast to become common for the CWA
again through the end of the TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  54  68  45 / 100 100  90   0
FSM   69  65  73  49 /  90  90  90  20
MLC   67  63  70  47 /  90  90  90   0
BVO   54  51  67  43 / 100 100  90   0
FYV   65  60  69  45 / 100  90 100  20
BYV   62  58  70  49 / 100  90  90  30
MKO   62  59  70  46 /  90 100  90   0
MIO   57  54  67  45 / 100  90 100  10
F10   59  56  69  46 / 100  90  80   0
HHW   73  67  70  49 /  80  80  80  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ054>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20