083
FXUS64 KTSA 101132
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

  - Unseasonably warm temperatures return through the weekend.

  - Increasing southerly winds and the warm conditions will aid in
    limited fire weather concerns for the weekend, especially Sunday
    afternoon.

  - Low rain chances return early next week, mainly for areas along
    and north of I-44.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Another uneventful night weather-wise with mostly clear skies and
lows dropping into the 50s to around 60. Upper ridge centered
over the High Plains will continue to expand over the area today,
but a fast-moving vort max will drop south along the east side of
the ridge later today. All CAM solutions continue to depict an
area of showers associated with this feature expanding to our
northeast this morning, some of which may clip far northeast OK
and parts of northwest AR this afternoon. Any rainfall amounts
observed will be very light. Otherwise dry conditions with warmer
temperatures for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Further expansion of the ridge over the Southern Plains will take
place this weekend with a return to much above normal temperatures.
The surface pattern will begin to respond to a developing trough in
the west resulting in lee side pressure falls. This will
especially be true Sunday as south winds gusting from 20-30 mph
will become fairly common. Coupled with much above normal
temperatures and humidity levels falling to the 25-35% range, fire
spread potential will increase, most notably in areas west of
Highway 75 in northeast OK where drought conditions are beginning
to develop. At this point at least, ERC values remain below
concerning levels.

By Monday a shortwave is expected to eject from the main trough and
track across the Northern Plains, in effect suppressing the ridge as
well as driving a frontal boundary south toward the local forecast
area. Some tropical moisture will be picked up from the eastern
Pacific as well, resulting in a chance of showers mainly across
parts of northeast OK. The uncertainty lies in how far south the
boundary will ultimately makes it so for now, precip chances will
remain in the 20-40% range NW of I-44.

Pattern favors a return of strong upper ridging to the Southern
plains next week, with much above normal temperatures and dry
conditions through at least the middle of next week, if not
longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Mid and high clouds are forecast to increase in coverage across
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas today with a
disturbance dropping southeast through Missouri. A slight chance
of a light rain shower exists over mainly far northwest Arkansas
this afternoon in response to the approaching disturbance.
However, with limited expected coverage/impacts to terminals will
hold off on mentioning in the TAFs. This evening and overnight
tonight, scattered to broken mid/high clouds are forecast across
the CWA. Winds through the period should generally be south to
southwest, while more variable winds are forecast for far
northwest Arkansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  63  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   83  62  86  62 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   85  59  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   87  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   82  58  83  58 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   80  60  82  59 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   84  62  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   82  61  83  62 /  10  10   0   0
F10   86  60  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   82  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20