040
FXUS64 KTSA 101443
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
943 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

 - Dangerous heat will persist through the weekend. Heat headlines
   have been issued for portions of the area Sunday.

 - Higher rain/storm chances and relatively cooler temperatures
   are expected to start the work week.

 - Temperatures will rise back to near average for this time of year
   during the latter part of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Corridor of showers and storms from north central OK into SE KS
have begun to decrease in coverage with the associated pushing
into areas near the OK/KS border in NE OK. The convective trend is
in line with short term guidance and the expectation remains that
precip will continue to diminish. The outflow boundary will likely
lift northward through the afternoon though that is trend is more
uncertain. Renewed late afternoon isolated storm development
along the boundary and also through the favored terrain corridor
seems reasonable at this time. Forecast update adjusted for
observed trend and made minor adjustments to precip chances and
sky cover. Expect hot and humid conditions again this afternoon
and the heat advisory will remain unchanged at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Low-level thermal ridging extending from the southern High Plains
northeast into the central/southern Plains will continue to bring
dangerous heat to close out the weekend. While the intensity of the
LLTR is expected to back off a bit, the hot temps and humidity are
expected to yield near advisory level heat indices across a good
portion of E OK and the lower Ark River Valley and thus one more day
of heat headlines. Uncertainties regarding outflow/cloud
cover/storms increase across the north toward the KS border however,
so it`s possible that this portion of the advisory may not verify.

CAMs show a strong signal for more widespread convection tonight
across NE/KS/MO/IA in association with the interaction between a
strengthening LLJ and a frontal boundary. An outflow boundary is
likely to drop south from these storms to near the KS border by
around daybreak. CAMs have some showers and storms developing across
far NE OK into far NW AR during the morning, probably in association
with the outflow. Some scattered afternoon storms are also possible
across NE OK and NW AR near the residual boundary, while some
isolated mainly diurnal activity is possible over W AR and far E OK.
Strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main
threats.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A shortwave trough, currently dropping south over the Intermountain
West, is expected to bring what looks to be the best rain/storm
chances for this forecast beginning Sunday night and possibly
lasting into Tuesday. While details differ amongst the CAMs, the
general idea of an MCS moving across KS/OK Sunday night into Monday
morning is there. What is also suggested is that storms will lose
steam with eastward extent into the forecast area toward Monday
morning. Looks like there will be additional storm development on
Monday afternoon near the outflow from the previous night`s storms.
The most likely scenarios in the ensemble cluster data also suggest
an uptick in rain/storm chances Monday night over our northern and
western areas, lingering into Tuesday. Gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall will remain the main threats, and WPC has highlighted NE OK
and far NW AR in a Marginal flash flood risk for Monday. In addition
to the higher rain chances, the low level thermal ridge collapses
and retracts back to the west, allowing for relatively cooler temps
and an end to the heat headlines.

For the latter half of the week, upper troughing will be prevalent
along the West Coast, while ridging develops over the Southeast/Gulf
Coast region. High temps will climb again, but should be closer to
average for this time of year and not quite as hot as they have been
recently. There will be generally low diurnally-driven and mainly
terrain-induced storm chances across W AR and far E OK as well.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period outside of some
thunderstorm impacts through the period. A cluster of storms
moving through Kansas could potentially impact NE OK sites later
this morning with lowered VSBY at times. More scattered
thunderstorm development is possible during the afternoon along
any remnant outflow boundaries across NE OK and NW AR sites.
Another cluster of storms is also forecast for late tonight with
potential impacts into NE OK sites by the end of the TAF period.
Southerly winds will also increase this morning with gusts around
20 knots possible through the day with higher gusts possible
within any thunderstorms.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  75  92  73 /  20  40  40  40
FSM   97  75  97  74 /  20  10  20  10
MLC   96  74  94  72 /  20  10  20  20
BVO   96  71  90  69 /  40  60  50  50
FYV   94  71  92  70 /  30  10  30  20
BYV   95  71  94  70 /  40  10  30  20
MKO   96  74  94  72 /  20  10  30  20
MIO   96  72  93  70 /  40  50  50  50
F10   96  72  93  71 /  10  20  30  30
HHW   95  73  93  72 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>062-064>067-070>074.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04