930
FXUS64 KTSA 281124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
524 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

 - The next storm system arrives Friday evening into Saturday bringing
   strong winds, rain, and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

 - Very cold temperatures Sunday through Tuesday morning. There
   will be a slight chance of snow for northern areas and a
   wintry mix for southern areas on Monday.

 - Temperatures warm somewhat into the middle of next week with
   dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Cool and quiet conditions tonight with lows mostly in the low 30s
in the north and mid 30s in the south. Clouds will increase but
no rain will occur.

With the next storm system approaching from the west, breezy
southerly flow will develop during the day. Temperatures will
warm a few degrees above yesterday, with highs in the mid to upper
50s. As the low level jet cranks up during the evening, the mid
levels will saturate with some instability developing. Widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms will form, persisting into the
overnight hours. Model guidance shows the slightly better
instability for southern areas, so storms will be most favored
south of I-40. Severe weather is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Cooling upper levels Saturday morning will reinvigorate
precipitation, with a few additional thunderstorms possible. NAEFS
specific humidity for the lower atmosphere shows values near the 90-
95th percentile for this time of year, so some locally heavy
rainfall may occur, but total rainfall amounts will probably be too
low for flood concerns. Breezy southerly flow will continue, with
gusts of 25-35 mph. Some guidance shows even stronger wind speeds
so a Wind Advisory is not totally out of the question. Then the
well advertised cold front will punch through, ending
precipitation. Northerly winds will be strong being the front,
gusting to 25-40 mph (strongest in northeast OK). This will again
be close to Wind Advisory criteria but likely just shy.
Temperatures will quickly decline, falling to near or below
freezing by late evening Saturday.

Sunday morning will see low temperatures in the 20s (lowest in the
north). Wind chills will be in the teens north of I-40 and low
20s south of I-40. 925 hPa temperatures as low as -10C will keep
temperatures down Sunday afternoon, with low to mid 30s across the
forecast area. EPS EFI for MaxT Sunday-Monday will range from
-0.7 to -0.9 which represents an unusual, but not extreme event,
for this time of year. Accordingly, in spite of it being the
coldest airmass of the year so far, no records are in jeopardy
with the current forecast.

The next storm system arrives on Monday from the west, bringing a
threat of wintry precipitation to the area. Models continue to
waffle with respect to the orientation, strength, and timing of this
storm system. This affects precipitation type and intensity.
Ensemble guidance simply has not coalesced enough around a consensus
solution for any serious confidence in the forecast outcome. With
that said, the overall favored outcome would suggest a wintry
mixture of all precipitation types is possible south of I-40, with
mainly snow north of that line. Total amounts will probably be
minimal for most areas, with the current forecast spreading a broad
area of 0.1 to 0.2 inches of snow north of I-40, and a light
glaze near and south of there. A few isolated locations could see
up to an inch or so of snow. This implies some localized impacts
could reasonably be expected if the high end snowfall amounts
verify. In terms of temperatures, most areas will stay near to
just above freezing during the day, with low to mid 20s Tuesday
morning.

A brief warming trend will ensue Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
with highs returning to the 40s to low 50s. Ensemble guidance is
confident in dry conditions for these days. Another cold and dry
front may move into the area for the tail end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Roughly the first half of the valid TAF period should be fairly
favorable aviating conditions, with an increase in mid cloud and
a modest uptick in wind speeds during the afternoon today.
Thereafter, wind speeds and gusts will increase through the
evening and overnight in response to a storm system approaching
from the west. In addition, low level moisture will increase,
leading to the development of MVFR ceilings and widespread
showers. A mention of MVFR visibilities in association with the
showers will be included at all sites, with any thunder mention
isolated to MLC and FSM. The chance of thunder at the remaining
terminals is nonzero but well below mentionable levels at this
range. Later shifts may also need to include a LLWS mention at a
few sites /mainly FYV/ for the predawn hours Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  46  55  25 /   0  70  70   0
FSM   59  43  54  28 /   0  90 100  20
MLC   59  46  58  27 /   0  80  80  10
BVO   57  43  52  22 /   0  50  70   0
FYV   52  40  50  23 /   0  90 100  10
BYV   51  39  49  23 /   0  90 100  10
MKO   56  44  55  25 /   0  80  90  10
MIO   54  42  50  23 /   0  80 100   0
F10   57  45  56  24 /   0  80  70   0
HHW   59  43  59  28 /   0  80 100  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22