129
FNUS73 KTOP 151309
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for Troublesome...USFWS
National Weather Service Topeka KS
809 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

Expect drier air to continue to filter in from the west through the afternoon
with gusty west winds. Expect gusts up to 30 mph through the afternoon
with sustained winds between 15-20 mph as afternoon Minimum RH values dip into
the mid to low 20 percent range. Winds will begin to decrease
around 7-8 PM, falling below 10 mph by 7-8 PM with a slow shift of winds towards
the west/southwest during the evening. Expect RH values to increase
above 40 percent by 8-9 PM this evening.

Similar conditions will exist Friday as RH values decrease into the low to mid
20 percent range with gusty west/northwesterly winds.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........67 at ignition...Max 82.
RH..................54 percent at ignition...Min 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds west at 15 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 11 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7100 ft
                    AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /27900 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /120000 knot-ft/.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............67  70  74  76  79  80  81  82  82
RH..............54  49  41  37  32  31  28  27  26
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..15  15  16  16  16  15  13  13  11
20 FT wind gust.23  23  23  23  23  22  23  22  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.0 2.8 3.5 4.1 5.1 6.1 7.1 5.0
SDspl kt-ft/100028  36  54  64  70  87  105 120 74

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 57.
RH..................Max 67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 19 mph shifting to the south 7 to 8 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (36000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............81     76     67     63     61     59
RH..............28     37     49     54     56     62
20 FT wind dir..W      SW     S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..10     7      7      8      7      7
20 FT wind gust.19     14     14     15     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....3000   800    500    500    500    500
SDspl kt-ft/100036     8      7      7      7      7

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 85.
RH..................Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 9 to 12 mph with gusts to around 22
                    mph shifting to the west 12 to 18 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (105500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (88700
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR    MCLEAR    CLEAR     CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............57        70        83        85
RH..............69        53        31        24
20 FT wind dir..S         W         W         W
20 FT wind spd..9         12        12        17
20 FT wind gust.15        21        21        23
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1600      4200      6400
SDspl kt-ft/10007         28        80        116

$$
Forecaster...Griesemer
Requested by...David Spencer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514063.0/TOP
.DELDT 05/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_spencer@fws.gov