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SPOT FORECAST for Rock The Plains (outdoor concert event)...Pottawatomie County EMS
National Weather Service Topeka KS
756 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 CDT on August 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
Short term CAMs continue to show thunderstorms developing and becoming more
widespread this evening, giving medium to high confidence in the forecast.
Thunderstrorms are expected to develop near or west of the event between 9 and
11 pm. These storms are likely to move to the north and northeast. A larger
cluser of thunderstorms is forecast to move west to east overnight with the
highest potential for thunderstorms between 1 and 4am. Initially storms that
develop late this evening could have large hail around 1 inch in diameter and
damaging winds of 60 to 70 MPH. Overnight the risk is expected to shift more
towards damaging winds up to 60 MPH and torrential rainfall. Storms will be
capable of rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour and could pose a flash
flooding risk. The strongest thunderstorm activity should push east of the
site by 5 am.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the evening, then showers and thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Temperature.........90 at forecast start...Min 76.
RH..................58 percent at forecast start...Max 82 percent.
Surface winds (mph).East winds 6 to 8 mph early in the evening
                    shifting to the west 8 to 17 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph, then shifting to the north 8 to
                    13 mph after 3 am becoming light.

TIME (CDT)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR PC  PC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  30  40  50  60  70  70  80  70
Temp............90  90  89  89  86  85  85  84  82  81
RH..............58  59  59  59  61  63  63  63  67  67
Surface wnd dir.SE  SE  E   E   E   W   NW  N   NE  NE
Surface wnd spd.7   6   6   8   8   8   17  13  8   4
Surface wnd gst.            10  9   14  30  21  12  9

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely
                    early in the morning, then chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Temperature.........Max 87.
RH..................Min 63 percent.
Surface winds (mph).East winds 6 to 9 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60  50  40  40  40  30  30  30  30  30  30  40
Temp............79  78  76  76  78  79  80  81  82  84  85  85
RH..............72  74  79  82  79  77  74  72  69  65  63  65
Surface wnd dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Surface wnd spd.8   9   9   8   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
Surface wnd gst.    10

$$
Forecaster...Wolters
Requested by...Cpt. Brian Huntzinger
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 2519636.0/TOP
.DELDT 08/09/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bhuntzinger@pottcounty.org