651
FNUS73 KTOP 041334
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for McKinney Triangle...USFWS
National Weather Service Topeka KS
734 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on December 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will increase out of the northwest into midday and this afternoon.
Temperatures will warm into the low and mid 50s with fairly dry conditions
remaining in place. With that, minimum relative humidity this afternoon
will fall to around 40 percent. Boundary layer mixing will occur to around
2kft by this afternoon, so smoke dispersal conditions will improve into midday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........42 at ignition...Max 55.
RH..................74 percent at ignition...Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds northwest at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 7 to 10
                    mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2500 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /6900 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /42800 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............42  44  47  52  54  54  55  53  50
RH..............74  72  62  52  49  48  47  53  57
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   9   10  10  9   7
20 FT wind gust.11  14  14  14  15  15  16  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.5
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
SDspl kt-ft/10007   13  15  24  33  43  25  13  6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 20.
RH..................Max 76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    after 3 am.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (38900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............46  42  40  39  37  35  33  30  28  26  24  22
RH..............65  73  76  76  72  66  63  60  55  52  52  51
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   8   9   10  11  10  10  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.11  12  14  15  16  16  18  18  18  16  19  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.0
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10005   6   6   8   9   10  9   16  14  16  34  39

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 32.
RH..................Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 5 to 9 mph in the morning and early
                    afternoon becoming light.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (37300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............21  20  20  22  25  26  29  30  31  32  30  29
RH..............50  46  48  47  42  40  38  36  35  33  35  37
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   8   8   7   7   6   6   5   4   3
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  15  14  13  12  11  9   8   7   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.8 1.1
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3
SDspl kt-ft/100022  27  29  37  35  31  27  23  20  17  11  6

$$
Forecaster...Teefey
Requested by...David Spencer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2427774.0/TOP
.DELDT 12/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_spencer@fws.gov