Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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063 FGUS64 KTUA 261638 ESGTOP LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK 1035 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. ...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... Valid 11/26/2024 - 02/24/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Cottonwood River EMPK1 20.0 24.0 32.0 6 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Neosho River AMCK1 26.0 27.0 40.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 EPRK1 19.0 19.5 30.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 NEOK1 22.0 23.0 44.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 BRLK1 27.0 40.0 45.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LRYK1 23.0 23.0 38.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. ...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B TUA 1126 Z DH12 /DC202411261635/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT .B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations : Valid 11/26/2024 - 02/24/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Cottonwood River EMPK1 3.6/ 3.6/ 4.9/ 7.7/ 10.8/ 17.5/ 21.6 :Neosho River AMCK1 3.3/ 3.6/ 4.2/ 5.3/ 8.2/ 13.3/ 14.2 EPRK1 9.2/ 9.4/ 9.7/ 10.5/ 11.7/ 14.1/ 14.5 NEOK1 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.6/ 8.1/ 10.4/ 20.1/ 22.9 BRLK1 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.8/ 11.3/ 14.3/ 21.6/ 23.2 LRYK1 7.5/ 7.5/ 7.5/ 9.6/ 13.1/ 18.8/ 19.5 :Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly :throughout the year. .END $$