Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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FGUS73 KTOP 272138
ESFTOP
KSC003-027-029-031-041-059-061-111-117-131-139-149-157-161-177-
197-201-280000-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued By National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
338 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025
...2025 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Topeka Hydrologic Service Area
(HSA) which includes the Republican River, Solomon River, Smoky Hill
River, Big Blue River, Kansas River, Marais Des Cygnes River, Neosho
River, and their tributaries in north central, northeast and east
central Kansas.
...There is a near normal probability of flooding during the next
three months...
Outlook:
The probability of flooding through May is near normal across the
NWS Topeka HSA.
The highest chances of minor flooding during the outlook period
range from 40 to nearly 70 percent and include the following
locations: Big Blue River at Blue Rapids, Mill Creek at Washington,
Black Vermillion River at Frankfort, Salt Creek at Lyndon, Solomon
River at Niles, and the Marias Des Cygnes River from near Reading
through Quenemo.
Spring flooding is not expected to be caused, or enhanced by melting
snow. Flooding which does develop will be driven by heavy rain
producing thunderstorms which typically occur during the spring
months.
Recent Conditions:
During the past 30 days, the heaviest liquid precipitation was
observed generally along a Topeka, to Holton, to Hiawatha line.
This region received between two and three inches of precipitation.
These values were between 150 and 200 percent of normal. The driest
locations affected Morris and Lyon counties where less than an inch
was reported. These values were less than 50 percent of normal
precipitation.
For the past 90-day period, the highest precipitation totals were
across northern Shawnee and Jackson counties where in excess of
four inches of liquid were reported. The driest area was along the
HSA border across southern portions of Lyon and Coffey counties.
In general, the northern half of the HSA had slightly above normal
precipitation with southern areas below normal.
During the past 30 days, below normal temperatures affected the
entire HSA. Daily averaged temperatures ranged from the middle 20s
to lower 30s. These values were two to six degrees below normal.
Present Conditions:
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that 92 percent of the NWS
Topeka HSA is experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions. In
addition, roughly 25 percent of the HSA is experiencing moderate
drought.
No snowpack is affecting the Central Plains.
USGS daily streamflow values across the region indicate generally
normal conditions across east-central and northeast Kansas. Below
normal streamflow is observed across the Republican, Solomon, and
Kansas Basin upstream of Topeka.
Future Conditions:
Over the next 7 days, around a half inch of liquid precipitation
is forecast across the Topeka HSA.
The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern favored
for above normal temperatures and normal precipitation.
Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal
regarding temperature for the local area. Above normal temperatures
are slightly favored to the south across Oklahoma and Arkansas. The
outlook indicates a favored area of below normal precipitation
across the western two-thirds of Kansas with above normal conditions
favored across the eastern two-thirds of Missouri.
The next Spring Flood Outlook will be issued March 13, 2025.
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In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Big Blue River
Marysville 35.0 38.2 43.0 : <5 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 19.0 19.4 45.0 : 5 6 5 6 <5 <5
:Mill Creek
Washington 18.0 19.0 35.0 : 39 30 32 25 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Barnes 16.0 23.0 39.0 : 28 34 6 8 <5 <5
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 26.0 52.0 68.0 : 68 62 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 19.0 27.5 40.5 : 51 49 5 5 <5 <5
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 19.0 26.0 37.0 : 19 30 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 21.0 35.0 39.0 : 27 35 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 22.0 32.0 44.0 : 15 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 9 18 <5 5 <5 <5
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 14.0 17.0 23.0 : 11 21 7 13 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Manhattan 18.0 26.0 42.0 : 14 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
Wamego 19.0 26.0 38.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 12 23 <5 8 <5 <5
:Rock Creek
Louisville 27.0 33.0 43.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Belvue 20.0 28.0 33.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cross Creek
Rossville 25.0 29.0 31.0 : 6 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Mill Creek
Paxico 21.0 31.0 33.0 : 28 38 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Topeka 26.0 27.0 44.0 : 7 6 6 5 <5 <5
:Soldier Creek
Delia 26.0 26.5 29.5 : 5 6 <5 5 <5 <5
Topeka 29.0 34.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
Lecompton 17.0 23.8 27.0 : 17 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lawrence 18.0 20.0 29.0 : 15 18 6 6 <5 <5
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 23.0 25.0 45.0 : 8 10 <5 5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Scandia 10.0 13.0 15.0 : 6 12 5 8 <5 7
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 16.0 19.0 35.0 : 11 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Concordia 15.0 18.0 30.0 : <5 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Elk Creek
Clyde 14.0 22.0 36.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Republican River
Clay Center 15.0 22.5 28.0 : 22 35 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Solomon River
Glasco 22.0 25.0 34.0 : 18 32 9 25 <5 <5
Minneapolis 26.0 30.0 38.0 : 7 16 <5 7 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Ada 18.0 20.0 24.0 : 13 23 10 21 <5 <5
:Solomon River
Niles 24.0 28.0 34.0 : 45 55 39 47 <5 <5
:Saline River
Tescott 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 36 34 29 30 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 27.0 30.0 33.0 : 16 28 11 14 <5 <5
:Mud Creek
Abilene 15.0 27.0 33.0 : 7 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 33 45 28 43 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 19.0 21.0 45.0 : 45 51 41 50 <5 <5
Quenemo 17.0 24.5 40.5 : 55 55 28 32 <5 <5
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 10.0 16.0 24.0 : 44 47 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 30.0 33.0 45.0 : 43 46 8 10 <5 <5
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 26.0 32.0 34.0 : 30 37 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lane 23.0 24.0 28.5 : 16 16 13 14 <5 <5
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 21.0 23.5 40.0 : 9 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cottonwood River
Emporia 20.0 24.0 32.0 : 27 26 16 13 <5 <5
:Neosho River
Americus 26.0 27.0 40.0 : 5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Emporia 19.0 19.5 30.5 : 16 9 15 9 <5 <5
Neosho Rapids 22.0 23.0 44.0 : 28 18 25 16 <5 <5
Burlington 27.0 40.0 45.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Leroy 23.0 23.0 38.0 : 6 8 6 8 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville 17.0 18.7 20.9 24.5 28.8 30.7 34.4
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 3.7 4.1 5.5 8.9 12.1 14.7 19.3
:Mill Creek
Washington 2.3 4.5 10.8 15.3 19.7 21.9 22.1
:Little Blue River
Barnes 6.2 7.1 10.3 12.6 17.9 20.5 24.5
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 19.4 20.9 24.6 28.3 32.9 35.7 42.0
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 11.7 12.4 15.1 19.3 25.7 27.1 27.5
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 4.3 5.7 8.8 10.8 15.5 20.5 22.3
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 6.6 7.2 9.1 11.9 22.6 31.2 31.4
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 3.0 3.8 6.9 9.8 17.3 24.2 25.5
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 6.4 7.2 9.3 11.9 16.9 20.7 24.0
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 3.4 3.6 4.3 4.8 7.0 15.2 19.9
:Kansas River
Manhattan 6.9 7.2 8.7 11.2 15.7 19.1 21.8
Wamego 6.4 6.9 8.0 11.5 13.9 16.6 18.7
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego 4.5 6.3 8.4 10.3 16.3 22.1 23.0
:Rock Creek
Louisville 9.4 9.7 10.9 12.9 17.1 22.2 22.9
:Kansas River
Belvue 8.9 9.4 9.8 12.5 14.5 18.2 18.6
:Cross Creek
Rossville 11.0 12.1 14.7 17.1 21.5 24.1 25.5
:Mill Creek
Paxico 4.1 4.7 6.0 9.1 23.6 27.3 29.4
:Kansas River
Topeka 9.5 9.7 11.4 14.6 18.9 25.2 27.6
:Soldier Creek
Delia 7.2 7.5 10.7 17.7 23.3 24.0 26.1
Topeka 2.2 3.6 6.9 11.1 16.0 21.0 22.1
:Kansas River
Lecompton 5.9 6.2 8.0 11.3 15.0 18.7 21.0
Lawrence 9.7 10.0 11.4 13.7 16.3 19.0 21.2
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 5.1 5.9 7.5 12.5 19.0 22.0 24.6
:Republican River
Scandia 1.6 2.1 3.0 3.8 7.4 9.1 12.1
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 10.0 13.7 16.3 17.5
:Republican River
Concordia 5.4 5.5 6.6 7.9 11.8 13.1 14.5
:Elk Creek
Clyde 4.5 4.9 5.9 6.6 7.5 8.0 8.2
:Republican River
Clay Center 7.2 8.4 10.0 12.3 14.8 16.8 19.0
:Solomon River
Glasco 3.7 3.8 5.4 9.5 20.1 24.4 27.3
Minneapolis 2.2 2.3 3.6 8.6 16.7 20.3 29.3
:Salt Creek
Ada 4.2 4.2 4.5 6.8 12.3 19.2 20.3
:Solomon River
Niles 3.9 6.6 12.6 21.7 28.9 29.5 29.8
:Saline River
Tescott 5.6 5.6 7.5 13.5 29.3 30.8 31.3
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 4.7 9.1 11.5 16.8 23.4 30.2 30.7
:Mud Creek
Abilene 1.5 1.5 4.4 6.5 10.7 14.0 15.6
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 8.0 11.2 14.9 18.2 28.1 31.6 34.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 4.6 5.1 5.8 11.8 23.3 24.5 24.8
Quenemo 3.7 4.8 9.6 18.0 25.4 28.6 29.8
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 1.6 2.1 3.2 8.8 11.8 14.5 15.1
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 6.8 7.4 12.8 21.6 32.2 32.7 34.6
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 9.5 10.9 17.3 22.4 26.2 27.8 29.6
Lane 7.6 7.9 10.4 16.4 21.1 24.7 25.8
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 1.0 4.0 7.2 11.2 15.4 20.5 22.6
:Cottonwood River
Emporia 3.4 6.3 8.7 12.8 21.0 26.0 26.4
:Neosho River
Americus 5.0 5.5 7.7 10.7 16.8 24.6 26.2
Emporia 10.3 10.5 11.6 12.9 15.8 21.5 23.8
Neosho Rapids 5.7 7.1 8.8 15.4 23.0 26.8 29.4
Burlington 9.2 10.3 12.1 17.6 23.0 23.5 24.1
Leroy 6.0 8.2 10.5 17.1 19.5 20.2 24.0
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4
:Mill Creek
Washington 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Little Blue River
Barnes 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.6
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6
:Chapman Creek
Chapman 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.4
:Lyon Creek
Junction City 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Kansas River
Ft Riley 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
:Kansas River
Manhattan 4.6 4.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Wamego 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9
:Vermillion Creek
Wamego 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0
:Rock Creek
Louisville 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5
:Kansas River
Belvue 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0
:Cross Creek
Rossville 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9
:Mill Creek
Paxico 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.6
:Kansas River
Topeka 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8
:Soldier Creek
Delia 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0
:Kansas River
Lecompton 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4
Lawrence 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Republican River
Scandia 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
:Republican River
Concordia 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
:Elk Creek
Clyde 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
:Republican River
Clay Center 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8
:Solomon River
Glasco 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6
Minneapolis 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Salt Creek
Ada 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
:Solomon River
Niles 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4
:Saline River
Tescott 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
:Mud Creek
Abilene 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Quenemo 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
:Salt Creek
Lyndon 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6
:Pottawatomie Creek
Garnett 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.6
Lane 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s National Water Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/top for more weather and water
information.
$$
SAW