745
FXUS63 KTOP 172329
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
629 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances increase (20-35%) this afternoon, peaking this
  evening into the overnight hours across east central Kansas
  (40-65% chance). A couple of storms could be strong to severe
  and produce wind gusts up to 60 MPH and hail up to quarter
  size.

- A strong cold front moves through on Saturday with northwest
  winds gusting at 30-35 MPH behind the front during the
  afternoon.

- Feeling more like Fall behind the front beginning Sunday and
  continuing for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A weak front is currently swinging through central Kansas.
Moisture convergence along the front is great enough this
afternoon to spark some light showers and isolated
thunderstorms. This trend will likely continue through the late
afternoon, with precipitation slowly developing/moving across
northeast Kansas. Slightly more robust storms are possible this
evening/tonight as a low-level jet ramps up and convergence
along the front increases. Conditions appear rather marginal for
any severe storms with lapse rates less than 7 degrees/Km,
instability generally limited to around 1,000 J/Kg, and
effective shear around 40 knots. A few wind gusts to 60 mph and
an occasional hail stone near one inch in diameter will be the
main threats in the strongest storms this evening/overnight. The
front should exit the area by around 3 am.

A stronger, but likely more dry, cold front will swing through
Saturday afternoon. Due to the fact that this front will be
moving through just shortly after the first front has exited the
area, moisture return is not expected and therefore
precipitation should remain to our south and east. A breezy day
is expected with the sharp cold front. Wind gusts around 35 mph
and much cooler air will flow in behind the front during the
afternoon and early evening. Overnight lows Saturday into
Sunday may dip into the 30s for some. More Fall-like
temperatures will remain into next week with highs in 60s and
70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. With northwest flow aloft
dominating through the middle of next week, a dry forecast and
favored. There are hints in the longer term models that a
Colorado low may develop toward the end of the week, bringing
more widespread precipitation to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Showers and thunderstorms could impact the Topeka terminals this
evening, so have maintained the PROB30 group from the previous
update. Models show the most likely timeframe for storms is 01Z
to 06Z. Strong sfc winds then become the main concern midday
Saturday behind a cold front. Gusts will quickly increase after
18Z from west to east across the area.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Teefey