244
FXUS63 KTOP 081719
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1119 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures near or below zero this morning with wind chills
  approaching -10 to -15.

- Temperatures moderate some for the end of the week and the
  weekend, but stay below average.

- Increasing chances for light snow Thursday night, particularly
  across east-central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

A strong 1040 mb area of high pressure has moved southward tonight
and is currently centered over central Kansas. With clearing skies
and near calm winds over top a deep snowpack, prime radiational
cooling conditions are in place. Where skies are clear temperatures
have already dropped into the single digits and will continue to
fall near or below zero through sunrise. Highs today again struggle
to reach 20 area-wide despite plenty of sunshine.

The good news is that we do see a modest warmup arrive Thursday as
high pressure moves off to the east and southerly winds return ahead
of a weak cold front. Temperatures stay below average, but do likely
finally reach freezing. By Thursday evening and Thursday night the
front will push southeast through the area, while a positively
tilted trough swings across the Plains. This will result in low-
level convergence ahead of the front overlapped with some weak jet
coupling and upper level divergence. The best upper dynamics will
stay to our south, but do think the aforementioned ingredients will
help some light snow develop over Kansas Thursday PM and have
increased PoPs as a result. Not a slam dunk for accumulating snow,
but think the overall setup looks favorable for a brief coating to
an inch, particularly across east-central Kansas. Can`t even rule
out a sneaky stronger band that drops some localized 2-3" amounts,
so will continue to monitor this potential the next couple days.

Friday into the weekend continue to see below average temperatures,
though with afternoon temperatures still climbing to near freezing.
This will help continue a gradual snowmelt from our recent blizzard,
but doubt we see it erased entirely any time soon. And with the
snowpack in place, overnight temperatures will stay quite cold. So
will have to watch out for black ice from the refreezing of any
daytime snowmelt. We should at least stay on the dry side after
Thursday night. A shortwave drops south out of Canada on Sunday, but
looks to stay a bit too far north. It will help to re-deepen the
eastern CONUS trough keeping cold in place for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Winds remain light through the period, mainly
from the southwest. Low-level winds increase overnight with
winds of 35-40kts at 1kft AGL. Wind direction remains southwesterly
through the low-levels, favoring turbulence over LLWS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Flanagan