359
FXUS63 KTOP 042326
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Much cooler and drier weather arrives tonight.

-Wind chills could be in the single digits early Thursday morning.

-A warming trend begins Friday with the warmest weather expected
this weekend.

-Precipitation does not look to impact the area through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Temperatures warmed nicely this afternoon into the upper 50s for
most of us across the area. A weak boundary moved through very
early this morning, shifting our winds to the west-northwest.
But a more impactful cold front moving southward into Nebraska
this afternoon will continue south through the forecast area
this evening as a deep surface low pressure system spins north
of Michigan. Following this evening`s cold front, a large
surface ridge currently over central Canada will expand
southward. A much cooler and drier air mass will accompany the
ridge tonight and tomorrow. Lows tonight are expected to drop
into the teens with dew points eventually near 0 degrees F.
North winds will also be breezy as the high moves in, creating
wind chill values in the single digits by sunrise Thursday.
Winds will decrease Thursday morning but temperatures will
struggle to reach the freezing mark during the afternoon.

High pressure moves southeast late in the week, which will set up a
WAA pattern. It will be much warmer by the weekend when afternoon
temperatures return to the mid and upper 50s area-wide.
Precipitation misses us to the southeast late in the weekend as a
mid-level trough axis moves across the south-central US. Another
cold front looks to move through the region early next week, which
will drop temperatures back to below average by Tuesday. Average
highs right now are in the upper 40s with average lows in the upper
20s. The forecast remains dry through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions will continue in a dry lower troposphere. Cold
front will move through around 04Z with some gusts following
likely despite this occurring in the night. High pressure
building southeast into the area the 12Z to 21Z window, roughly
following the Missouri River, brings weaker and veered winds
late in this forecast. Some mid-level cloud around FL080 could
develop at times.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Poage