402
FXUS63 KTOP 211041
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
541 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm weather continues today and Friday with highs in the upper
  80s and lower 90s.

- There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms Friday night
  as a cold front moves south.

- Cooler weather with a taste of fall is expected across the region
  into next week with off an on chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

An upper level ridge remained centered over the Four Corners
region per the 07Z water vapor imagery, with a ridge axis
extending into the Upper Midwest. This placed the forecast area
under weak northerly flow. Surface obs show high pressure over
WI and the UP of MI that was nosing into northeast KS.

The weather for today should be influenced by the ridging at the
surface and aloft, with weak subsidence in mid levels and continued
easterly flow at the surface. Models show again there may be some
modest surface based instability with weak inhibition. But with no
forcing or lift, chances that a give location sees a pop-up shower
are 5 to 10 percent. The easterly low level winds look to keep highs
around 90 as dewpoint temps mix out a little more this afternoon
keeping heat indices much more bearable. Clear skies with light
winds should continue tonight as lows fall into the lower and middle
60s.

We should see a little more southerly winds and weak warm air
advection on Friday pushing highs a degree or two warmer ahead of a
cold front that is forecast to enter the area Friday night. In
general there doesn`t appear to be a lot of time for moisture return
ahead of the front and this limits instability ahead of the boundary
Friday evening. This may be why models are holding off precip until
later in the night when better shortwave dynamics catch up with the
front. Models forecast bulk shear to decreasing the further south
into KS storms get, but mid level lapse rates could still be steep
enough for a strong storm or two. So while the setup doesn`t look
like a classic severe weather event, we`ll need to keep an eye on
thinks Friday night.

Not a lot of change to the forecast for Saturday through early next
week. There is still good agreement in the pattern change with
northwest flow allowing a Canadian high pressure to move south into
the central plains. This will bring unseasonable cool weather to the
area. Ensembles have narrowed the spread in potential highs for
Monday and Tuesday, but there remains some 7 to 9 degree spread in
highs with the NBM leaning closer to the 25 percentile. If there are
widespread clouds and precip, highs in the lower 70s may make some
sense. The blend has trended lower with POPs Monday and Tuesday,
which based on the operational solutions, seems like a good trend.
So there remains some room for the forecast highs to change in the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Ridging at the surface and aloft should keep VFR conditions in place.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters