096
FXUS63 KTOP 061050
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
550 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Less than a 30% chance for light snow southeast of I-35 early
  this morning. Probabilities favor trace amounts but there is
  a 10% chance for up to half and inch on the high end based on
  ensemble data.

- Near and below freezing temperatures set up early this morning
  mainly along and north of I-70. More widespread freezing
  temperatures setup area-wide tomorrow morning (Monday) and
  again Tuesday morning. Therefore, a Freeze Watch has been
  issued for situational awareness for anyone trying to take
  advantage of an early growing season due to previously warm
  stretches having already occurred.

- Warming trend through sets up this week with highs reaching the
  60s, 70s and possibly low 80s next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Early this morning, a deep positively tilted trough continues to
lift out of the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. The
forecast area remains on the northwestern side of the weak
deformation zone. Sub-cloud dry air depth is sufficient to preclude
much in the way of any meaningful precipitation reaching the ground.
However, there may be a brief window for a few hours this morning
where a more enhanced band of light rain/snow mix or light snow may
develop generally southeast of I-35. Probabilities for measurable
precipitation remain very low. Overall, even if snow does fall, no
significant impacts are expected and melting would occur on contact
with the ground or soon after.

The question for the period appears to revolve around freezing
temperatures for the next couple of nights as a surface ridge builds
into the area. Generally light to calm winds with mostly clear
conditions appear to be likely the next couple of nights. Low
temperatures are forecast to fall to 33 degrees and below into the
low 30s and upper 20s from south to north across the area. The most
recent MRCC Vegetation Impact data suggest that the forecast
area has a mixed susceptibility rating. Therefore, have
coordinated with surrounding offices to issue at least a Freeze
Watch in anticipation that those taking advantage of previous
warm temperature stretches have at least some growing underway.
Those who have begun growing will want to be especially aware of
several hours of near or sub-freezing overnight lows across a
widespread area for the next couple of nights/early morning time
frames.

By Wednesday into Thursday, northwest flow brings a clipper system
through the northern Plains which may shift south into portions of
the mid-MS Valley region. Overall, ensemble data suggest that a
trace to less than a tenth of an inch of light rain may setup over
far northeastern into far east-central areas. Warm temperatures
continue to trend warmer through the week into next weekend. Could
see 70s and 80s especially by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Trend remains in place for any light precipitation to stay southeast
of the terminals generally through sunrise into mid morning.
VFR forecast remains in place with a BKN layer around FL150 and
then SCT by mid to late morning. No significant aviation impacts
are anticipated for this period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake