018
FXUS63 KTOP 301130
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant temperatures today with low level dry air in place
helping to suppress humidity levels.

- Heat and humidity return for much of the area by Tuesday.

- Chances for active weather return for the 4th of July week
breaking the heat from Tuesday. However, could see repeated rounds
of heavy rain along with periods of severe storms off and on as a
boundary lingers across the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Early this morning, the upper air pattern across the CONUS features
the Westerlies mainly along the norther tier into Canada.
Anticyclonic high pressure is aloft across much of the southern into
southeastern CONUS. An upper trough is lifting from the eastern
Great Lakes into the New England Region. Another Pacific trough is
digging into the Pacific Northwest. Subtropical moisture plume aloft
continues to return through the Desert Southwest into the central
Rockies and over the central Plains. Near the surface, a weak
boundary that pushed through the area yesterday is stalling south of
the region helping to keep storms well south of the area over
southwestern and south central Kansas areas. Severe weather has
subsided over this area as more general stabilization has taken
place during the overnight hours. A surface ridge continues to
expand into the local area, helping to keep dewpoints trending
overall lower which has resulted in continued pleasant overnight
conditions.

Today, dry air continues to work into the low levels with
northeasterly winds for much of the day. With moisture aloft
streaming around the anticyclonic feature in place over the southern
CONUS, expect mid to high clouds to help keep insolation limited
today. The low dewpoints in place and highs only reaching the 70s
will make a very pleasant feel to the air today. There may be a few
showers over western areas but low level dry air should limited
coverage as any rain will tend to evaporate at least partially. Only
weak isentropic ascent appears to be the source for lift through
early this morning mainly over north central areas. Would anticipate
any precipitation amounts to be low today if at all.

Into the day Monday, high pressure slides east of the area allowing
for more return flow to develop as the Pacific trough digs into the
northern Rockies and broadens east. As H85 temps increase with
southwest flow aloft, expect heat to return Tuesday which could
along with return of upper 60s and low 70s dewpoints, will push heat
index values to around advisory levels with most cloud cover focused
north of the area along with a baroclinic zone through Nebraska and
more broad scale ascent to the northwest of the local area.

Outside of morning WAA/isentropic showers and storms mostly over
northern areas Monday morning, the best chances for active weather
and potentially severe weather with heavy rain potential set up into
afternoon and evening on Tuesday across the area. A modified cold
front along the southern flank of the broad upper trough translating
east through the northern Plains region should see at least
marginally strong shear set up across the area along with strong
instability by the late afternoon Tuesday. Mostly parallel flow to
the surface boundary may lead to storms turning into a heavy rain
setup as well. This boundary wavers north and south through the 4th
of July holiday which may lead to periods of off and on stormy
periods as persistent troughing remains in place with opportunity
for embedded shortwave energy to work through the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Anticipating VFR conditions for the period. Chances for showers
or storms around the terminals is still too small to mention.
Mostly mid to high cloud cover is expected over much of the
area. Dry low level air continues to work into the area today
and winds gradually veer ESE as the surface ridge begins to
slide east.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake