077
FXUS63 KTOP 052329
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
629 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is forecast for the next seven days.

- Cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday trend warmer into
  the 80s and near 90 by the end of next week.

- Elevated fire danger is forecast for the entire area Sunday
  afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper wave propagating east
over the northern plains with broad high pressure and weak flow
over the southern plains and desert southwest. Surface obs
showed a frontal boundary through central NEB and into
northwest KS.

There is little change in the forecast with a dry and generally warm
pattern progged to persist. Limited moisture ahead of the frontal
boundary means it should pass through the area this evening dry.
Then even drier air moves into the area as surface high pressure
builds into the central plains. The biggest change to the sensible
weather will be cooler temps behind the front closer to seasonable
normals for Sunday and Monday as the high remains over the central
plains. Have also trended lows down Monday morning expecting ideal
conditions for radiational cooling and a dry airmass over the
forecast area with dewpoint temps around 30 degrees.

The middle to late week period of the forecast shows temps warming
back up into the middle and upper 80s as upper level ridging
amplifies over the central Rockies. There is not a lot of spread
among the ensembles and cluster analysis shows limited variability
with strong positive height anomalies through Friday. This leads to
good confidence in the NBM solution. Would not be surprised to see
temps for Friday and Saturday trend back into the 90s based on the
12Z operational solutions showing strong warm air advection from the
southwest again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Wind is the main aviation hazard in the 00Z TAFs. A front will
shift winds from the south-southwest to the north around 03Z at
KMHK and between 05Z-06Z at KTOP/KFOE. Wind speeds should be
less than 10 kts through the overnight period, but are expected
to increase again around 15Z Sunday to between 10 and 15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Hot and windy conditions this afternoon are meeting red flag
criteria this afternoon over norther central and far northeast
Kansas. Plan to let the current warning run its course as we`ve
already had a few fires noted on satellite near the NEB state
line.

Elevated fire danger is possible on Sunday for the entire forecast
area. Even drier air is forecast to move into the area with the high
pressure. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday, but minimum RH
values are expected to fall to around 20 percent in the afternoon
because of the dry air. Additionally a northerly wind of 10 to 20
mph is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This wind forecast
stays below red flag criteria, so the rangeland fire danger is
generally in the high category for Sunday. It doesn`t look like
winds will be much stronger, but it is something to keep an eye on.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ034-KSZ035-
KSZ036.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Teefey
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters