005
FXUS63 KTOP 301725
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1125 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Very cold weather in place today.

-A quick moving system will bring widespread accumulating snowfall
 to the area tonight and tomorrow (Monday).

-A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most counties.

-Temperatures will remain cold all week, with another chance for
 rain/snow late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

As one storm system pulls away, another approaches. Water vapor
imagery early this morning shows yesterday`s system now over the
Great Lakes with the next mid-level wave digging over the
northwestern CONUS. Ahead of that next wave, a large surface ridge
builds in today and brings a very chilly air mass with it.
Temperatures this morning are the teens and low 20s, but the
northwest breeze makes it feel more like the single digits. Highs
this afternoon will only top out in the mid and upper 20s...well
below climatological averages.

The cold air mass will remain in place as PVA associated with
the northwest wave moves over the area. A batch of snow will
develop as lift increases tonight and Monday morning. An
increasing jet streak in the flow will induce some mid-level
frontogenesis, which should allow for a band of moderate
snowfall during the daytime hours of Monday. There is still time
for a slight shift in location, but as of right now, the
highest probabilities for the highest snow totals appear to be
along and north of I-70. The HREF Grand Ensemble and NBM agree
with a general 2.0 to 4.0 inches of snow along and north of
I-70, while the LREF Grand Ensemble has the highest band
centered over I-70. Confidence is fairly high in a general 1.0
to 3.0 inches of snow by Monday evening south of I-70. Went
ahead an issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area
north of I-35 with high enough confidence in travel impacts due
to accumulating snowfall. Both morning and evening commutes
could be impacted Monday. The next shift may choose to expand
the advisory southeast.

Snow ends Monday afternoon from west to east. With snow on the
ground, temperatures will once again be very cold Monday night
with lows in the single digits in far northern KS and in the
teens elsewhere. Sunshine and south winds return Tuesday as high
pressure moves east of the area, so temperatures should warm
above freezing in the afternoon. A progressive synoptic pattern
will bring a cold front through on Wednesday, but have kept
POPs less than 10 percent due to limited upper level support and
moisture. A 1035 mb ridge will slide in from Canada behind the
front and will bring some of the coldest temperatures of the
season so far on Thursday. Temperatures then moderate a bit on
Friday when models show another chance for precipitation as low
pressure moves into the Ozarks from the south. The temperature
forecast would suggest that both rain and snow could occur if
that solution materializes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR cigs have once again overspread terminals, but have been
slowly lifting, similar to yesterday. Think these will lift to
VFR for a period this afternoon and evening before additional
MVFR cigs and eventually snow build in. Some light snow may
develop ahead of the main band of snow that impacts terminals
after 12z Mon. VSBY will likely be IFR with periods of LIFR in
the heaviest snow bands. Cigs may also fall to IFR while snow is
falling.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-
KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Flanagan