291
FXUS63 KTOP 272309
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
609 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms may develop late this afternoon and evening. If
they can develop, these could quickly become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds as the main threats.

- Windy conditions continue Friday as gusts upward of 35 mph can be
expected.

- Storm chances return Saturday, mainly along a cold front Saturday
afternoon and evening across east-central KS.

- Cooler air moves in Sunday with highs the 50s through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Mid-level water vapor imagery this afternoon shows some decaying
showers and storms over southeastern KS with some deeper convection
continuing across northeastern Missouri, shallow mid-level ridging
over the central Plains, a diffuse upper low over central TX and a
trough entering the PNW. Across Kansas, strong WAA has shot most of
the area into the upper 70s and low 80s as of 2 PM with some across
east-central Kansas a few degrees cooler as cloud cover associated
with morning convection has persisted. This should leave a slight
gradient in temperatures across the area as east-central Kansas tops
out in the upper 70s and low 80s while central and north-central KS
approach the upper 80s and some low 90s. Expect winds this afternoon
and overnight to remain gusty as pressure gradients remain tight,
gusting to 35 mph at times. Later this afternoon and evening, a weak
wave moves across the KS/NE border and could help to produce some
isolated convection that could quickly become strong to severe given
elevated instabilities upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk
shear 20-25 knots. That said, trends in convection have decreased
over the past 12 hours. That seems to be in part due to the lack of
forcing over our area with the LLJ being the main low-level forcing
mechanism. The focal point of lift with the LLJ seems to have
shifted north and east of the area as inhibition decreases late
this afternoon and evening. This shift in forcing may also
shift the main corridor of storms north and east as parcels
will likely not be able to overcome afternoon low-level capping.
If a few storms can develop in the area, large hail (up to 1.5
inches) and damaging winds (to 60 mph) will be the main hazards.

By Friday morning, some shortwave energy that ejects off the long-
wave trough over the western coast moves into the central Rockies,
deepening a surface low and trough across western Kansas and the
Dakotas. Pressure gradients should remain very tight through the day
Friday leading to gusty south/southwest winds again. Moisture
advection from the south should help to mitigate any widespread fire
weather concerns, but could cause fires to become difficult to
control at times Friday afternoon. Expect highs to again top out in
the upper 70s to low 80s. The next chance for rain and storms moves
back into the region Saturday and into Saturday night as another
shortwave moves into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern
Kansas. Southerly low-level flow will continue to pump moist air
into eastern Kansas Saturday (dewpoints in the upper 50s and low
60s) as models indicate a stout EML advecting east ahead of the
shortwave. With capping in place below the EML, low level
moisture may lead to widespread stratus for much of the day with
some chances for some light rain Saturday morning and into the
afternoon. There is still some uncertainty with how socked in we
will be during the day Saturday, but this outcome will likely
play a pivotal role in what our chances for severe weather will
be later in the afternoon and evening Saturday. Regardless,
cooler air aloft associated with the shortwave will lead to
steepening lapse rates Saturday afternoon and increase MUCAPE
across eastern Kansas to 1000- 1500 J/kg. A cold front sweeping
across the state Saturday evening should help to trigger
convection, mainly across northern and far eastern Kansas. How
strong and widespread convection will be is still uncertain
partly due to some of the reasons stated prior. The timing of
the system is becoming a bit more certain with several
deterministic models agreeing on the front passing through the
area around 00z-06z Sunday. Will continue to monitor trends in
higher resolution guidance as it becomes more available.

The shortwave slowly shifts northeast Sunday morning with some wrap
around precipitation chances staying in the forecast until early
Sunday afternoon. Colder air filters in during the day Sunday with
much lower afternoon highs Sunday and Monday topping out in the 50s.
Luckily the chillier temperatures do not last long as low-level flow
shifts back to the south by Tuesday ahead of the next trough,
pushing afternoon temperatures back into the upper 60s and 70s. PoPs
should increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as the aforementioned
trough and upper low passes across the central Plains with near-
average temperatures expected for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

A cluster of thunderstorms in central KS may impact KMHK between
01Z and 03Z, so have included a PROB30 group for that chance.
Otherwise, wind will be the main aviation concern this period.
South-southwest winds stay gusty overnight and increase after
sunrise Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Thur Mar 27 2025

Thursday high temperature forecasts and record-
Concordia: 90 Record: 89 in 1895
Topeka: 84 Record: 87 in 1895

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Teefey
CLIMATE...Reese