744
FXUS63 KTOP 060859
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
359 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms possible again today mainly along and
  south of I-35

- An unsettled pattern will remain in place through next week
  with near average temps and several chances for thunderstorms


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A shortwave trough was located across northwest MO into eastern
KS with an associated cold front drifting southward across
northeast KS this morning. Weak convergence along the 925-850mb
boundary was acting to keep widely scattered t-storms ongoing
this morning. That activity should continue to shift southward
with the boundaries this morning and by afternoon the sfc front
should be located closer to I-35 where re-development of
scattered storms should occur. Weak shear and modest mid-level
lapse rates should once again limit any organized severe wx risk
today.

Tonight...organized forcing for storms will remain focused
across the high plains where an MCS should develop and move
south. 850mb winds are weak across this part of the state and
any precip chcs across central KS would be with a weakening
system late tonight so low precip chcs were kept there.

Monday-Tues...Expect more scattered diurnal storms Monday as the
weak boundary remains in the area. There`s a better chance for
nighttime storms to move south out of NE Monday night into Tues
and impact at least parts of the area within northwest flow
aloft. Whatever occurs Tuesday morning could impact how any
redevelopment of storms would play out Tues afternoon so
confidence in organized severe weather is low at this time
despite the marginal risk from SPC.

There may be a break Weds before a stronger system approaches
for the end of the week and that system may bring another risk
for severe weather by Thu or Fri. All in all an active pattern
will continue for July.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the
TOP/FOE sites for a few hours overnight before shifting ESE of
the area. Winds should gradually turn to the northwest and
eventually to the north northeast on Sunday as a weak cold front
pushes through. VFR conditions should prevail after sunrise
Sunday with any risk for storms expected to stay south of the
sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Omitt