749
FXUS63 KTOP 151927
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
227 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A frontal boundary moves into the area Friday with chances for
  showers and storms between 40-70%.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms Friday afternoon across
  parts of northeast and east central Kansas.

- Temperatures remain warm to end this week. But Occasional cold
  fronts are expected to bring cooler temps through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

19Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low over the southwest
with a broad upper ridge centered over the ARLATX region. Persistent
warm air advection and isentropic lift have allowed for some
scattered showers to hang on into the early afternoon over northeast
KS. At the surface a trough of low pressure in the lee of the central
Rockies had gradually deepened as surface ridging to the east
weakened.

Models show the warm air advection pattern persisting tonight, but
there is less mid level saturation in the layer that is seeing lift.
Additionally the nose of the low level jet and theta-e advection is
progged to be well north of the forecast area tonight. So I don`t
anticipate a repeat of the elevated shower activity that we had
today. This should leave general subsidence with the ridge overhead
until the upper trough moves out from the Rockies Thursday night and
Friday. Initially the better dynamics are expected to lift to the
northwest of the forecast area, but some vorticity advection is
progged along a weak frontal boundary that should move into the area
with the upper trough. The NAM develops up to 1500 J/kg of surface
based CAPE along the boundary Friday afternoon with bulk shear
around 40KT. So a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the
heat of the afternoon. Warm temperatures are forecast to persist
through the end of the workweek as the stronger low level cold air
advection holds off until late Saturday.

A stronger cold front is progged to move through the forecast area
Saturday as a more amplified shortwave sweeps through the central
plains. Most of the instability is forecast to have been scoured out
and displaced to the east by Saturday. But there may be enough
residual moisture and lift for some showers across eastern parts of
the forecast area. The NBM has some decent chances for measurable
precip and see no reason to change this.

Medium range models suggest a more active pattern for next week with
occasional shortwave troughs passing through. However there remains
some spread in the ensembles and the operational solutions differing
on how progressive the pattern may be. This would impact the ability
for moisture to return ahead of any potential frontal passage. The
00Z ECMWF, which is favored more heavily in the NBM, was showing a
faster progression to the pattern with little time to recover. Now
the 12Z ECMWF is more in line with the 12Z GFS and a lower timing to
a shortwave trough and front. Will stick with the NBM and it`s dry
forecast through Wednesday given the greater spread in potential
solutions. But there may be some small chance for precipitation
Monday night or Tuesday depending on how the moisture sets up ahead
of the front. Aside from that, temps next week look to be a little
closer to normals for October with occasional fronts bringing cooler
temps and northwest flow making it harder for warm air to move back
north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The better isentropic lift and mid level moisture is expected to
lift north of the terminals early this afternoon with impacts
remaining minimal. Mid level clouds should also scatter out
leaving VFR conditions in place. Models show some dry mid level
air moving in tonight with the nose of the low level jet to the
north and west of the area, so the VFR conditions should
prevail into Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters