900
FXUS63 KTOP 071718
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible through the morning hours. The stronger storms may
  produce small hail

- Additional chances (20-40%) for storms come Sunday afternoon and
  evening with the potential for a few strong to severe storms.

- Dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Early this morning a short-wave upper trough was moving east
across western KS. At the surface an outflow
boundary/stationary front extended from the northern TX PNHDL
east-northeast across the KS/OK border. A severe complex of
storms were moving east along and just north and south of the
boundary. The complex of storms will drift east-southeast during
the morning hours into southeast KS, then northeast
OK/southwest MO/northern AR. Isolated to scattered elevated
storms will possible through the morning hours across the CWA
but as the H5 trough shifts east by afternoon, the ascent will
shift east across MO and the shower and storm chance will end.

A more amplified upper trough will dig southeast from central Canada
into the northern Great Lakes. The southern extend of the H5 trough
axis will shift southeast across the CWA Sunday afternoon. A surface
cold front will push southeast across the CWA during the afternoon
hours of Sunday. Thunderstorms will develop along the front and some
of these storm may be strong to severe as MLCAPE will increase ahead
of the front to around 2000 J/kg and effective shear will increase
to 30 KTS. The primary hazard would be severe wind gusts with
any line of storms that develop and any isolated storm within
the line may produce large hail if the updraft develops mid-
level rotation.

The front should move southeast of the area Sunday evening and
the rain chances will end from northwest to southeast across the
CWA.

The extended forecast looks dry through the end of next week. An
upper trough will move onshore across the western US and
southwesterly flow across the central Rockies will cause a lee
surface trough to deepen across the high Plains. Southerly low-level
flow across the southern and central Plains will begin to transport
rich gulf moisture northward providing isentropic lift for a chance
for showers and thunderstorms by Thursday into the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Front has moved southeast of KTOP and KFOE, bringing
shower chances to an end until tomorrow afternoon. Winds have turned
northerly behind the front and were briefly a bit gusty but have
since quieted to around or below 10 kts, where they should stay
through the rest of the period. Skies stay mostly clear until mid-
day tomorrow as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Reese