439
FXUS63 KTOP 040506
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1206 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight.

- Below-normal temperatures continue through Monday.

- A warming trend commences Tuesday with the return of hot and
  humid conditions late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025


Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite imagery showed a mid-
level perturbation across northeast KS and southeast NE. On the WSR-
88D Zr loop a vortmax can be seen in the circulation across northern
Washington County along the NE border. This perturbation will
dig southeast across far eastern KS into western MO. There is
very little instability across the eastern counties of the CWA
with MLCAPES less than 200 J/KG. The area of showers across the
central and north central counties of the CWA will probably
weaken and may dissipate as they push east this afternoon. The
northeast counties may receive a few hundredths of an inch of
rainfall and areas along and east of a Hiawatha, to Topeka, to
Burlington line may only see a trace of rainfall this afternoon.
We will probably keep the mid clouds all day. If CNK keeps
cloud cover all day they may only reach into the lower 70s. The
record minimum high temperature for KCNK is 70 degrees.

Tonight:

I kept a slight chance for showers across the CWA. A few CAMs
show weak isentropic lift for light rain showers or sprinkles.
The stronger moisture return and isentropic lift will be across
western KS where thunderstorms may develop this evening, but
these storms will move southeast due to the northwesterly mid
level flow and remain well west of the CWA.


Monday through Sunday:

An upper ridge across the southwestern US will slowly expand
northeast across the Plains late this week into next weekend. A
few perturbations may try to round the H5 ridge axis across the
Plains, so I cannot rule out isolated showers Monday into
Monday evening. However a surface ridge of high pressure across
central MO into AR will advect drier air parcels northwest
across the CWA. So, there may not be enough moisture for showers
even with weak ascent ahead of a mid-level perturbation.

Expect dry weather for the remainder of the week. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s Monday, then high temperatures will warm
through the week into the lower 90s by mid week and mid 90s to
end the week. The dewpoints will increase by the end of the
week, with surface dewpoints reaching into the upper 60s to
lower 70s through the afternoon hours, with heat indices in the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Low chance for a light shower to impact
terminals overnight, but dry conditions are favored. Winds
remain light from the east-southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Flanagan