104
FXUS63 KTOP 280718
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
218 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain to continue through this morning with heaviest accumulations
(up to 1-1.5 inches) occurring south of a line from Herington to
Garnett. The flooding threat still remains low.

- Below-average temperatures persist through the weekend with
  another chance for precipitation Saturday into early Monday
  (20-50%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A subtle mid-level wave embedded in northwesterly flow has made its
way into western Kansas early this morning and has helped to spark
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the state. Currently,
showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall rates have
developed across central Kansas near the nose of a strengthening 25-
30 kt LLJ. An associated theta-e gradient lies just east of the jet,
generally separating the main moisture axis from northeast Kansas
apart from central Kansas. With majority of moisture and forcing
staying across central Kansas, models and most CAMs have trended the
heaviest rainfall amounts south and west of our area. Probabilities
of our southwest counties receiving 1 inch of rainfall has dropped
from 50-70% in the 12z HREF run on Wednesday to 10-40% in the 00z
run Today. Areas even further east and north will see even less
rainfall, generally only topping out to a few tenths of an inch.

Precipitation will continue to shift south and east by the mid-
morning today with low ceilings lingering through the day today.
This will not promote much warming this afternoon as highs will only
reach the low to mid 70s. The next few days and into the holiday
weekend will see similar cool temperatures as highs top out in the
upper 70s and low 80s. Our next chance for precipitation comes
Saturday and lingering into early Monday as the next appreciable
wave passes over within the northwest flow. In addition, lovers of
the cooler temperatures will continue to rejoice as long-range
guidance seems keen on digging another deep Arctic low into the
central US mid to late next week. This will again bring another shot
of cool air into the region, keeping us well-below average for
temperatures this time of year.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Messy TAFs will be in order for the entire period as ceilings
begin to drop into MVFR and IFR status as showers try to slide
east towards the terminals. Reduced overall mention of
precipitation, especially at KTOP and KFOE as forecast trends
and confidence keep majority of precipitation west of the those
terminals. Kept a Prob30 in at KMHK as there will be some better
chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm to impact
there. MVFR and IFR CIGs will be expected to linger into the
morning and early afternoon for all sites before afternoon
mixing helps to raise ceilings by around the late afternoon
timeframe.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer