136
FXUS63 KTOP 011904
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
204 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The forecast calls for dry conditions through next week.

- Temperatures are expected to bounce between seasonable and
  hot.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper trough swinging over
the Great Lakes and an upper low off the coast of the AK
panhandle. Elsewhere broad ridging in the upper levels was noted
over CA and through the southern plains. Surface obs had this
morning`s cold front south of the Ozarks and into the Red River
valley with the center of high pressure across north central KS
and eastern NEB.

The forecast continues to call for dry weather through the next
seven days. Operational models keep the mean westerlies across the
northern tier of the country with mid and upper level high pressure
remaining over the southwestern U.S. And ensemble cluster analysis
shows a strong probability for anomalously high heights remaining
over the southwest and into the plains through next week. This is
expected to keep the energy and precip chances to the north and east
while the forecast area remains warm and dry.

Dry air in place and clear skies are expected to allow temps to fall
into the lower 40s Wednesday morning. I wouldn`t be surprised if a
few locations in low lying areas see some upper 30s for lows. Temps
Wednesday should rebound back into the upper 70s and lower 80s as
the surface ridge passes east of the area and return flow
strengthens. Southerly winds are expected to become breezy with
gusts from 15 mph over the east to around 25 mph over north central
KS. Temps look to be up and down through the weekend as fronts pass
through the area Thursday evening and again Saturday night. Ahead of
these boundaries, strong warm air advection should push temps well
above normal with readings in the 90s followed by more seasonable
temps behind the fronts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Dry air and limited forcing will keep VFR conditions in place.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Elevated fire danger may redevelop Wednesday afternoon across
north central and parts of northeast KS. Southwesterly winds are
expected to gust up to 25 mph through the afternoon as RH
values fall to between 20 and 25 percent. Although fuels remain
sub-critical for now with fields still about 60 percent green.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters