723
FXUS63 KTOP 031732
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1132 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Additional showers and storms develop today as low pressure moves
over the area.

-Cooler and drier weather moves into the area for midweek.

-Precipitation chances increase again briefly on Thursday, mainly
 south of I-35.

-Seasonable conditions are expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A stacked closed low pressure system was located over south-central
KS and north-central OK at 09Z today. The initial round of rain east
of the cold front and trough axis was exiting the area to the northeast,
while showers and isolated storms were filling in across north-
central KS in the wrap-around region of the system. Additional
scattered showers and storms are expected to develop due to large
scale ascent as the low moves over northeast KS this morning. Around
500 J/kg of MUCAPE could allow for some lightning but severe weather
is not expected today. Winds increase out of the northwest as the
low pulls away due to a tight pressure gradient on the back side of
the system. Gusts of 30 to 35 kts could occur, especially in north-
central KS.

A CAA pattern will bring in cooler and drier conditions tomorrow.
Cloud cover should also clear from southwest to northeast throughout
the day as temperatures in the mid 40s early warm to near 60 degrees
during the afternoon. A mid-level trough axis around the departing
low phases with another approaching H5 low over KS on Thursday. An
associated sfc low will move along the Red River Valley with an area
of rain developing in OK and southern KS. The best chance for rain
will remain south of I-35 with most other locations likely to stay
dry on Thursday. Temps stay very close to average as a sfc ridge
builds in from the north late this week with lows near 40 degrees and
highs near 60 degrees.

Seasonable and dry weather continue through the upcoming weekend. A
brief warming trend then occurs early next week with a return of
southerly flow ahead of our next front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR conditions dominate this forecast with isolated to scattered
showers for at least a few more hours before the storm system pulls
away. Cold frontal passage occurs soon after 18Z at TOP and FOE with
all stations seeing gusty northwest winds through at least 02Z.
Conditions improve with weakening winds and likely VFR conditions by
the end of this forecast though confidence in timing of these
improvements is not high for either element.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Poage