744
FXUS63 KTOP 151031
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
531 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers this morning, but most stay dry
  today and Thursday with temperatures remaining above normal.

- Shower and storm chances increase Friday into Saturday,
  highest Friday evening into Saturday morning across northeast
  and east central Kansas (60-80% chance). The potential for
  severe weather is low, but a couple of storms could be strong
  to severe.

- Cooler and drier air builds in for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Mid-level ridging remains stoutly in place across the Southern
Plains early this morning with a closed upper low present over
California. Mid-level clouds and elevated winds just off the surface
have precluded the development of fog, but any sustained period of
clearing could lead to some shallow fog in low-lying areas and river
valleys. Weak isentropic upglide may generate isolated sprinkles or
light rain showers this morning, but lift wanes through the morning
and this potential diminishes by mid-morning. Another warm day
is in store with highs reaching the mid 80s.

The aforementioned closed low over California lifts northeast into
the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday, pushing a weak surface
boundary/trough into the area. The daytime hours Thursday are
expected to be dry before the boundary sags into the area and
increases chances for showers and storms through the day Friday.
Highest chances (30-80%) for precipitation come Friday evening and
Friday night as lift is enhanced by a passing wave across the
Southern Plains. Effective shear of 25-35 kts is progged to be in
place Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, but instability is
rather limited, peaking near 1000 J/kg Friday afternoon. Thus, a
couple of stronger storms are possible, but the overall severe
threat is low.

A potent shortwave dives southeast across the central CONUS on
Saturday, shunting a strong cold front through the forecast
area. The position of this front by Saturday afternoon will
determine where the potential exists for additional thunderstorm
development. Unsurprisingly, guidance is quite varied in the
location of the boundary by Saturday afternoon; the GEFS favors
a faster frontal progression while the ENS supports a slower
FROPA. The pre-frontal environment features shear supportive of
strong to severe storms, but the magnitude of instability that
will be present remains in question given the potential for
morning showers and storms. It will be worth monitoring the
trends in regards to the speed of the front and amount of
destablilzation as we get closer to this timeframe.

Surface high pressure builds in behind the front Saturday night into
Sunday, ushering in cooler and drier air. Lows Sunday morning will
likely dip into the 40s with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. The
cooler air doesn`t last long as the surface high quickly translates
southeast and southerly low-level flow returns by Monday. Another
system ejects across the Plains Monday-Tuesday of next week, but
guidance varies on location and timing of this wave and associated
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions expected. Still can`t rule out a brief drop in
VSBY due to fog through sunrise. Isolated to scattered showers
have developed, but impacts to terminals should be limited with
precipitation dissipating through the morning. Southerly winds
increase to near 10 kts at KMHK this afternoon before weakening
with sunset this evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Record Warm Low Temperatures for Today, October 15

               Record (Year)     Forecast
Concordia        63 (1998)          63
Topeka           70 (1968)          62

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan