237
FXUS63 KTOP 181924
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
224 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms this evening may pose an isolated
  threat for hail (up to quarter size) for areas generally
  south and east of I-35.

- Multiple rounds of showers and non-severe thunderstorms
  Saturday through Sunday night result in widespread rainfall
  amounts from 1 to 3 inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Stout southwesterly flow on water vapor imagery this afternoon
as the incoming upper low center is rotating through Utah. The
sfc cold front from last evening has made its way into central
Oklahoma, as gusty north winds on the backside have cooled temps
down into the 50s in the afternoon. While a few scattered
showers passed over portions of east central Kansas earlier this
morning, additional precip is not anticipated until the evening
when the isentropic ascent enhances in vicinity of the h85
front. In conjunction, several embedded vort maxes traverse the
southern and central plains generating a widespread swath of
showers and storms through Sat. morning, specifically south of
I-70. While elevated cape values are less than 500 J/KG in this
area, strong bulk level shear leads to the possibility for an
isolated updraft capable of producing hail up to quarter size,
albeit confidence in this occurring is low for east central KS
(20-30%). Forecast rain amounts are in good agreement between
HREF and NBM guidance ranging from a quarter to three quarters
of an inch through Saturday morning. There is some uncertainty
in the northern extent of showers and storms Saturday afternoon
as the h85 front lifts back north into southeast Kansas. Optimal
precip chances during the daytime period are southeast of the
KS turnpike.

As the upper low center ejects and deepens across Kansas by early
Sunday, progressive and more widespread forcing results in light to
moderate rain CWA wide through Sunday evening. Latest cluster
analysis shows decent agreement in the 500 mb heights on Sunday
afternoon with lesser confidence in the timing of the low and
subsequent precip exiting the region on Sunday night. Wrap around
deformation bands behind the low therefore could linger longer into
the evening while the dry slot stays to our south, therefore ramping
up qpf amounts towards north central KS. Total rainfall amounts
through Sunday evening span from 0.60 inches in north central Kansas
to 3 inches over east central Kansas. Impacts are minimal over the
weekend given the two day spread for rainfall and antecedent dry
soil.

Upper air flow pattern backs to the west next week, modifying temps
back to normal values in the 70s for highs with multiple chances for
precipitation from Tuesday evening onward. Favorable moisture return
in vicinity of a slow moving front and weak, embedded waves signal
increasing probabilities for showers and storms (perhaps some strong)
for the region during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Low end VFR cigs are expected to persist through the afternoon
as steady low and mid level moisture streams northeast
throughout the forecast period. Occasional gusty northerly winds
behind the front should subside aft 00Z before veering to the
northeast and increasing near sunrise above 10 kts. Added SHRA
to KTOP/KFOE as latest model guidance has become more in line
with light showers reaching these sites after 06Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto