504
FXUS63 KTOP 222320
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
520 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather with gradually warming temps expected into the
  weekend.

- There remains a 20 to 30 percent chance of wintry weather
  Wednesday and Thanksgiving morning. Any snow is expected to be
  less than an inch.

- Colder weather is forecast to end the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

19Z water vapor imagery showed a closed upper low off the coast
of the Pacific Northwest with ridging over the central Rockies
and plains. Surface ops placed a broad high pressure area over
the middle MO river valley and into northeast OK.

There is little change to the forecast for tonight through the
weekend. The surface ridge currently over the area has shunted low
level moisture well south of the TX coast and moisture return is
progged to remain meager ahead of the next front expected on Sunday.
Additionally forcing from a low amplitude shortwave is progged to
affect the region mainly Sunday night after the front has pushed
southeast of the area. The shortwave energy progged to pass mainly
north of the area Sunday night is looking a little more dynamic, but
models keep the saturation and QPF just north of the forecast area.
So the forecast remains dry. Temps should continue to moderate with
highs around 60 on Saturday.

The main focus of the forecast is on the potential for wintry
weather Wednesday and Thanksgiving day. And there is starting to be
a better consensus among the 00Z models and ensemble data. While
there remains some spread in the ensemble data, about half of the
members are showing a progressive and open wave passing over the
central plains Wednesday night. The other half suggest a nearly
zonal or weak northwest flow with no discernible shortwave. With
this in mind, the 20 to 30 percent chance for precip from the NBM
seems pretty reasonable. Ensembles are still showing up to a 50
percent chance for measurable snow mainly Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. But the potential for snow greater than a half
inch drops off to around 25 percent, and only a few outliers have
more than an inch of snow. So the expectation for the middle of next
week is for a chance of wintry weather that should only have minor
impacts at most.

Looking ahead for the rest of the holiday weekend and travel, the
weather is most likely to remain dry but colder temperatures with
highs stuck in the 30s are probably going to move into the central
plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 513 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

As surface ridging moves across the area tonight and tomorrow, light
and variable winds overnight will become southerly around 10 kts by
late morning. Skies stay VFR with just a few high clouds.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Reese