891
FXUS63 KTOP 302252
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
552 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated showers and thunderstorms move through mainly east
central KS this afternoon, and should remain sub-severe.

- Less humid Tuesday, then slowly trending warmer and more humid
into the holiday weekend.

- Weather looks dry Tuesday and Wednesday, then on and off rain
  chances return Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Sfc trough axis is moving through east central KS as of 1930Z, and a
weak boundary within it has triggered spotty showers just in the
last hour. Have not observed any lightning with this activity yet,
but will maintain the possibility of isolated showers and storms
through this afternoon as the boundary continues to push south. The
BL is uncapped with up to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, but shear looks
weak along with mid-level lapse rates. As such, am not anticipating
severe weather with any storms that develop.

By this evening, the trough axis moves east and high pressure moves
in from central NE/KS. This will dominate our weather into Tuesday
with a drier air mass in place behind today`s boundary, leading to
less humid conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Ridging
aloft will keep dry weather through Wednesday, but with slightly
warmer temperatures on Wednesday in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Thursday looks to transition to southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a
trough over the Great Basin, with return flow helping to bring low-
level moisture back in from the Gulf. There doesn`t look to be a
strong source of lift, but there could be enough surface heating and
instability to develop some isolated to scattered pop-up
thunderstorms, and the forecast has 20-30% chances to account for
this. The aforementioned trough looks to weaken the ridge Friday
into the weekend, although there are some differences in the
strength of the system as it traverses across the region in that
time frame. The operational GFS appears to suggest a stronger system
than is depicted in any of the ensemble clusters, but even so, the
Euro appears to have a weaker system Friday into Saturday followed
by an additional weak perturbation which may bring another round of
storms Saturday night. Given these subtle but meaningful differences
in the pattern late this week, will keep chances for rain through
the holiday weekend. It doesn`t look like a washout, but folks with
outdoor plans should keep an eye on the forecast as timing and
placement of features will likely change and have an impact on storm
chances and locations this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A small cluster of TS appear as if they will pass between MHK
and the Topeka terminals with some -RA possible at TOP and FOE.
As the boundary layer cools, this activity should continue to
fall apart leaving VFR conditions for the rest of the period.
Only concern is the potential for ground fog formation. Most
guidance does not show fog forming, but with the winds becoming
calm I would not be surprised if some shallow ground fog
developed at TOP before sunrise Tuesday. The 12Z HREF shows the
probability of fog at TOP is about 20% and lower at the other
terminals, so will leave it out for now.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Wolters