851
FXUS63 KTOP 112319
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
619 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Warm fall weather continues this weekend.

-Rain chances return to the area on Monday with cooler conditions.

-Dry midweek, before possible precipitation again late next
 week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The atmospheric pattern across the CONUS this afternoon features a
compact mid-level low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes
region, a deepening coastal low off the southeastern coastline, a
ridge of high pressure extending from TX northward through the Upper
Midwest, and a large amplified trough moving over western regions.
The remnants of Hurricane Priscilla, once off the Baja coast, is
now a shortwave trough producing rainfall over the Desert
Southwest and southern Rocky Mountain regions. High pressure and
southerly flow over eastern KS are keeping our conditions warm
for this time of the year. Highs today reach the low to mid 80s
with mainly sunny skies. South winds increase tomorrow (Sunday)
as low pressure moves out over the High Plains. The WAA pattern
should allow temperatures to soar into the mid and upper 80s,
well above our low 70 averages.

A cold front will approach the forecast area tomorrow afternoon,
reaching north-central KS by the early evening hours. That
front will continue southeast during the overnight hours and
eventually looks to wash out over far eastern/southeastern KS on
Monday. A few CAMs try to develop isolated showers ahead of the
boundary tomorrow, but am thinking chances will remain less
than 10 percent with a fairly dry profile and very limited
instability. Better chances (30-50%) for precipitation will
come behind the boundary on Monday when a weak shortwave may
approach the area. Any rain that develops will likely remain
light with only a few tenths of a inch expected. Temperatures
behind the boundary will be cooler with highs on Monday only in
the upper 60s and low 70s.

An upper ridge builds back in on Tuesday and Wednesday, helping to
warm temps up. Locations mainly north of I-70 will have
continued rain chances (20-30%) on Tuesday with another
possible weak mid-level wave riding through the southwest flow
aloft on the northern fringe of the building ridge. Dry weather
is then anticipated on Wednesday and Thursday before an
amplified upper trough approaches from the west late in the
week. Models differ slightly on how that wave evolves, but more
active weather could be in store for Friday and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Increasing mid-level
cloud deck anticipated by mid-morning Sunday, with surface winds
becoming occasionally gusty during the late morning and
afternoon hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Blair