422
FXUS63 KTOP 031105
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
605 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain near average for early July for the next
several days with increasing humidity into the holiday weekend.

- Storm chances return on the 4th and linger into early next week,
although greatest chances (40-60%) come Friday night through
Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A low-amplitude upper-level ridge is centered over eastern
Kansas today. With mostly clear sky and southerly flow at the
surface, a warm day is on tap with highs in the mid 90s. Despite
increasing moisture and instability today, with no significant
source of lift, thunderstorms are not expected. The ridge
slowly gets shunted off to our south and east as a trough
deepens across the Rockies on Friday. Models are in good
agreement with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing
over central and eastern Kansas Friday afternoon. With no
focused lift arriving until later in the evening, any afternoon
activity should be very minimal in scope. Later in the evening
(after 10 pm) a weak upper-level wave ejects into the central
Plains. This may lead to a slightly more organized complex of
storms developing across southwest Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. As this activity pushes further east, into our area, it
may weaken and diminish in scope given the lack of expected
shear and instability. After this wave moves through the
forecast gets a bit more nebulous. With quasai-zonal flow
through the weekend and northwest flow developing by early next
week, several more waves may move through the region but timing
and location of these waves will be hard to pin down this far
out given the rather weakly forced nature of the overall
pattern through early next week. Temperatures will likely remain
around normal for this time of year (upper 80s to low 90s)
through next week with a stout ridge developing to our west,
keeping the oppressive heat further south and west of our area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light southerly
wind and mostly clear sky.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones