178
FXUS63 KTOP 101127
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-There is a slight chance for a isolated shower or storm south of
 I-70 early today.

-Temperatures remain unseasonably warm through the first half of the
 weekend.

-Much cooler Canadian air will then drop temps to near freezing
 by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Prior to sunrise this morning, water vapor imagery shows a compact
cyclonic circulation over southern Nebraska, and weak low pressure
over central Kansas. Have maintained 10 to 15 percent chance POPs
south of I-70 early this morning as the low aloft advances
southward. Models show some isentropic ascent in that area and a
minor amount of MUCAPE. Into the afternoon, the warm stretch of
weather will continue as highs soar into the mid and upper 80s
across the region. On Friday, a mid-level trough axis will move
eastward across southern Ontario and the northern Great Lakes
region, bringing a cold front toward northern KS. Temperatures will
warm a few more degrees at 850mb ahead of the boundary, which
will lead to a very warm day with temperatures approaching 90
degrees. The front looks to stall across the CWA on Saturday and
another day with well above average temperatures is expected.

Stronger northerly flow aloft as another trough axis dives southward
over Canada will push the cold front through the area late Saturday.
Cold air advection will commence as a large surface ridge expands
southward. Have opted to increase winds above NBM guidance on Sunday
given the tight pressure gradient as the ridge builds in. Temps will
be much closer to climatological normals Sunday with highs in the
low to mid 70s. A reinforcing shot of cool Canadian air will move
southward early in the workweek as another trough axis rotates
around an strengthening upper low well northeast of the region.
Overnight temperatures look to fall into the 30s area-wide Monday
night and again Tuesday night. Frost appears likely with clear skies
and light winds expected. Afternoon temps should top out in the 60s
for a few days before southerly flow increases and brings warmer
temps back later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR prevails today and tonight. South winds increase to near 10
kts by midday before decreasing again around sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey