491
FXUS63 KTOP 191130
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered non-severe thunderstorms linger this morning. There is
low confidence for severe storms to enter northern KS from Nebraska
late this afternoon. Outside of this, mostly dry weather is expected
with highs in the 80s.

- There are additional chances for showers and storms Friday into
the weekend, but low predictability of timing and location leads to
low confidence.

- Temperatures stay near average through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Looking at the big picture, broad cyclonic flow is noted across the
Midwest into the Northeast thanks to an upper low near the Hudson
Bay. The upper ridge dominates the Desert Southwest, placing us in
an area of quasi-zonal flow aloft. The sfc low and associated cold
front have pushed south of the area with WAA and the LLJ helping to
maintain storms across the center of the CWA through the night,
which have been very slowly making their way southward. These have
been sub-severe for the last few hours and should remain so through
the morning. With the moisture axis overhead, some brief heavy
downpours are possible especially with any updrafts that quickly
pulse up and down. The current batch of thunderstorms should exit
the area by sunrise. Another area of sub-severe storms is making its
way across KS with a convectively induced vort max. This is progged
to enter north central KS around sunrise and eventually exit the
area by late morning, likely weakening as it does so.

After the morning rain moves out, a break is expected with most
areas staying dry the rest of the day. Cooler temperatures are
forecast behind the cold front with highs in the 80s. The main
challenge for today is whether or not another round of storms makes
it into northern KS late this afternoon, and if so, how far south. A
weak perturbation within the northwest flow aloft in Nebraska is
progged to spark convection there late this morning, which lasts
into the afternoon. CAMs are varied in how far south this activity
maintains itself, with the few more recent HRRR runs bringing
isolated storms as far south as I-70. Most other guidance suggests
these storms struggle to do much as they approach our area. Forecast
soundings show an uncapped environment by late afternoon with 2000-
2500 J/kg of CAPE and around 45 kts of shear, so if the storms can
reach northern KS, the atmosphere appears more favorable to sustain
severe weather. Damaging wind would be the main threat with perhaps
some small hail.

Any other convection later tonight into Thursday morning is favored
to stay well west of the area. Surface high pressure during the day
Thursday should allow for mostly sunny skies with temperatures once
again reaching the 80s.

Friday through the weekend, we transition to more northwesterly flow
aloft as the upper ridge to our west amplifies, as does the
troughing pattern to our east. Multiple embedded perturbations
during this time frame bring on and off chances for showers and
thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, although the low predictability
of these waves keeps PoPs low for any given time frame (30% or
lower). With rain chances generally looking to be nocturnal, daytime
temperatures look to gradually warm a bit through the end of the
week with highs a few degrees on either side of 90. Ensemble ranges
widen for Sunday into early next week, as the ridge looks to build
further east but the timing and location of any subtle waves and
associated sfc fronts leads to greater uncertainty at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Thunderstorms have been slow to move away from terminals without much
of a break throughout the night. Although the current TS are finally
starting to move south of TAF sites, another batch is still upstream
in north central KS and may impact terminals for a few more hours
this morning. Afterwards, clouds should clear out with VFR conditions
expected. Another round of storms may move into northern KS from
Nebraska later this afternoon, but it is uncertain how far south they
will maintain themselves and coverage looks too isolated for mention
in TAFs during that time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha