529
FXUS63 KTOP 111921
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
221 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low probability for an isolated severe storm or two to
  redevelop this afternoon, particularly across far eastern
  Kansas. Damaging winds and small hail are the main hazards.

- Drier and warming conditions anticipated for the remainder of
  the week. Rain chances return to the region late this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Visible satellite this afternoon highlights the residual cloud
debris from this morning`s convection, in addition to a remnant MCV
tracking northeast into east central Kansas. Some cloud scattering
and sfc heating may allow sfc CAPE to increase in excess of 2000
J/KG as the MCV approaches far eastern KS after 2 PM. Decent low
level rotation from the MCV may generate a few stronger storms,
highly dependent upon the timing of clearing skies and available
instability at this time. Model variability is high and overall
confidence in severe storms is low. Nevertheless, a marginal risk
for severe weather covers a small area of far eastern Kansas for
this potential. In addition to the damaging winds, a brief funnel
cannot be ruled out given the low level lift from the MCV. Any
convection clears to the east after 7 PM tonight.

Low level clouds lift as additional storm development focuses near
the front in southeast Kansas overnight. Kept low precip chances
along/southeast of I-35 given the upper shortwave trough axis slowly
pushing southeast through Tuesday afternoon. While organized lift is
not apparent on short term guidance, could not rule a rogue storm or
two through Tuesday afternoon before dry conditions return for much
of the week.

Upper ridge stretches east into the central plains Wednesday onward
as the northern stream jet shunts qpf amounts towards the Great
Lakes region. Ample sunshine and mixy conditions each afternoon
contribute to temps climbing back to normal values in the upper 80s
and middle 90s. By late in the week, the ridge gradually weakens,
with some ensembles showing a cold front and associated precip
entering the region by Sunday. Mid level height anomalies are above
the ensemble mean values, further lessening confidence in storm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

MVFR stratus is scattering out to VFR shortly aft 18Z with
gradual clearing anticipated by early evening. There is a low
probability for TSRA to redevelop near KTOP/KFOE aft 22Z,
however model variability on timing/coverage of storms is too
low for a PROB30 mention. There are some indications for mid
clouds to increase aft 09Z, reducing the fog potential Tues.
morning at KTOP.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto