416
FXUS63 KTOP 191042
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
542 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and some thunderstorms become widespread late tonight
  through Sunday. Total amounts from 0.5 inches to 2 inches
  expected.

- Small risk for severe thunderstorms in eastern Kansas Sunday
  afternoon.

- Precipitation chances return for much of the middle and end of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue over east-central Kansas
early this morning, sourced from an area of concentrated mid-level
frontogenesis over northwest Oklahoma. This activity looks to
diminish at least somewhat today but modest isentropic lift will
persist over the southern counties and bring some chance for showers
and perhaps a few thunderstorms. The isentropic lift spreads north
and deepens late tonight into Sunday morning as the upper low over
the southern Rockies swings northeast into western Oklahoma. Severe
weather potential remains limited by a lack of instability, but there
is a window of concern Sunday afternoon in eastern Kansas. There are
indications the stacked system could see some drying wrap into this
area which could lead to near 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Hodograph details
are far from certain but with a 70 knot 500 mb jet streak nearby,
wind fields could easily support at least isolated severe
thunderstorms. The showers end Sunday evening with model means
still in fairly good agreement of 0.5 to two inch total amounts,
with the most in east-central Kansas. Much of this falls late
tonight into Sunday afternoon but still appears to be spread out
enough in time to mitigate flooding concerns.

A short-lived quiet period comes Sunday night into Monday evening,
though there is some chance for frost formation in north-central
Kansas around sunrise Monday as winds weaken under clear skies.
Conditions become more unsettled Tuesday into at least Thursday with
zonal flow aloft and southerly low-level flow from the Gulf. There
is much uncertainty in shortwaves which appear fairly low-amplitude
at this point. NBM PoPs seem a bit at times in this regime.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions should be the rule through at least 00Z though
chances for showers and reduced ceilings increase through the
remainder of the period. IFR conditions and TS could arise at
the end of this forecast but confidence is too low to include.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage