864
FXUS63 KTOP 222019
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
219 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front moves through tonight keeping temps on Thursday
  below freezing.

- Dry weather with temperatures near or slightly below normal
  are expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

At mid afternoon, a couple of waves were moving through a mid level
trough across the northern and central Plains. The northern wave was
moving across Minnesota into the Dakotas while another was present
over eastern Nebraska. Regional radar was pockets of showers/snow
showers across parts of central and eastern Nebraska at 1945Z
within an area of DPVA and steepening low and mid level lapse rates.

For tonight, isolated sprinkles or flurries will be possible across
the northern counties late this afternoon into the evening hours as
the energy rotates southward into northeast Kansas. A cold front
will continue to move through the forecast area this afternoon with
the best advection of cold air arriving later this evening. This
will send temperatures back into the teens for lows tonight. On
Thursday, temperatures will cool back into the 20s for highs. A
secondary mid level trough will move through Nebraska on Thursday
with no precipitation expected.

Temperatures rebound on Friday and warm to above freezing across
northeast Kansas as warm advection commences Thursday night and
continues through the day on Friday. Heights rise through the day on
Friday as mid level flow transitions from northwest to a more
westerly zonal flow.

Kansas remains in a nearly Zonal flow through the weekend as a mid
level low develops in the west and northern stream trough remains in
Canada and into the northeast. Highs remain in the 30s for the
weekend for highs , then warm into the 40s for the first half of
next week as the upper low moves across the Rockies with ridging
into the southern and central Plains. Forecast confidence for
precipitation by next Wednesday remains low as models differ on the
location and depiction of the mid level trough and associated energy
and moisture return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period.
Models suggest a potential for some MVFR cigs to develop after
16Z or 17Z. Winds becoming westerly at TOP and FOE by 20Z, while
northwest winds under 10kts expected at MHK. Winds become
northwest at TOP and FOE, generally 10kts or less, after 02Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53