352
FXUS63 KTOP 120730
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
230 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm conditions continue through the week. Wednesday will be the
  warmest day with highs in the low 90s.

- There is a low chance (15%) for rain across far northern
  Kansas Wednesday night with better chances coming over the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Little change to the synoptic pattern has occurred across the region
over the last 12-24 hours with the closed upper low spinning near
the Gulf Coast and surface ridging in control of the Central Plains.
The upper low does make some progress northeast today, but will
track far enough east to keep any precipitation and the majority of
cloud cover away from the local area. A very similar day to
yesterday is expected with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low
to mid 80s. The closed low continues its eastward propagation,
allowing for mid-level ridging to build across the Central Plains
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing southerly winds will gradually
warm temperatures through Wednesday, when the warmth will peak as
850mb temperatures warm to 20-22 degrees C. This will translate to
highs approaching record values in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees on
Tuesday and in the 90s for most locales on Wednesday. A longwave
trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Plains
Wednesday evening into Thursday. A lack of deep moisture and the
northern displacement of the strongest forcing favors a mainly dry
passage of this system, although there could (10-15%) be a few
showers near the KS/NE stateline. Temperatures behind the front are
slightly cooler, but highs will still be in the low to mid 80s
through the end of the week.

A shortwave ejects across the Plains on Friday, although uncertainty
in the location of the surface boundary and overall moisture quality
leads to low confidence in precipitation chances with this wave.
Only about 10% of members from both the GEFS and ENS generate
measurable precipitation on Friday with the higher chances remaining
to our south and east. Model variability remains high for the
weekend into early next week with models offering a variety of
different depictions in regards to location of the surface boundary
as it lifts back north and the favored timing of ejecting waves and
associated precipitation chances. Nonetheless, a more active pattern
with chances for showers and storms begins late Saturday and
continues into Monday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Conditions remain VFR with light southeasterly winds through the
period. The potential for fog is low given elevated winds just
off the surface.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

Record High Temperature for May 13

              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          92 (2018)         87
Concordia       93 (1940)         88


Record High Temperature for May 14

              Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka          95 (2013)         92
Concordia       95 (1899)         91

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan