261
FXUS63 KTOP 091944
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Warm, dry and windy conditions create extreme fire danger
 tomorrow (Monday).

-A strong system late in the week could bring additional fire
 weather concerns and thunderstorms to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Today, a warm air advection pattern has allowed temperatures to warm
into the 60s with fairly light winds. Clear and calm conditions
continue overnight as temperatures cool into the mid 30s.
Stronger southwest winds set up tomorrow. The stronger winds and
deeper boundary layer mixing will boost temperatures even higher
with much of the area in the upper 70s for highs tomorrow
afternoon. Windy conditions and low relative humidity combine to
create extreme fire danger across the area. Thus, the Fire
Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from noon
until 8 PM area-wide. See the fire section below for more
details.

A weak cold front will then move through the area Monday night and
early Tuesday. Slightly cooler, although still above average,
conditions can be expected behind the boundary Tuesday afternoon. A
storm will then pass south of the area midweek, without much impact
on our weather. Precipitation will stay south and temperatures will
warm back into the 70s.

A more impactful system is still on track for late in the workweek
when a longwave mid-level trough digs over the western CONUS. That
will induce rapid lee cyclogenesis and will create a tighter
pressure gradient across the area on Friday. There are still
some model differences on the track of the surface low across
Kansas and Nebraska, but long range models seem to agree on a
strong low developing. The greatest threat for thunderstorms
with that system still appears to be just east of the forecast
area Friday evening. Fire weather will remain a concern for
portions of the state, depending on where a dryline sets up.
Trends will be monitored as that system approaches so we can
hone in on more details.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR this period with no aviation hazards expected today and
tonight. Skies remain clear and winds remain less than 10 kts
until midday Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

A Red Flag Warning has been issued area-wide from noon until 8
PM Monday with increased confidence in extreme fire danger
conditions. As temperatures quickly warm, efficient boundary
layer mixing through the afternoon will allow drier air to mix
down, putting minimum relative humidity between 15 and 20
percent. Southwest winds will also quickly increase into the
afternoon hours with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph. These
weather conditions combined with dry fuels will lead to extreme
fire conditions. Burning should be postponed until conditions
improve.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey
FIRE WEATHER...Teefey