310
FXUS63 KTOP 071115
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
515 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain Friday into Saturday with total rainfall of
  0.5-1.25 inches

- Near-normal temperatures continue through the weekend with a
  slight warm up for Monday and Tuesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Southwesterly mid-level flow persists across the Southern and
Central Plains early this morning ahead of a closed low currently
situated over the Four Corners. Surface high pressure resides north
of the area with a modest pressure gradient and surface winds around
5 MPH precluding fog development to this point. There could be some
shallow fog in low-lying areas or river valleys this morning, but
this would burn off quickly after sunrise. Highs will be a few
degrees cooler than yesterday, topping out in the mid 50s to near 60.

Cloud cover increases overnight as the closed low slowly transitions
east. Waves of energy on the east side of the low will generate some
showers as early as Friday morning across the western half of the
CWA, but the main push of precipitation comes Friday evening into
Saturday morning. Confidence remains high in all areas receiving
some decent rainfall given good lift and increasing moisture with
PWATs of 1.25-1.5", above record values for this time of year
according to SPC`s sounding climatology for TOP. Instability is
progged to be limited with MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg mainly south of
Interstate 70, so while there could be periods of heavier rain,
flooding concerns are very low. Ensembles continue to favor total
rainfall of 0.5-1.25" before rain exists Saturday afternoon.

The system departs towards the Great Lakes for Sunday with flow
becoming zonal to begin next week. Temperatures gradually warm from
the upper 50s to near 60 on Sunday into the mid and upper 60s by
Tuesday. Another trough is progged to move through the Plains by the
middle of next week, bringing our next chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

VFR conditions expected. There could be some shallow fog through
13-14z, mainly at KTOP, but elevated winds at and just above
the surface should largely inhibit fog development. Winds remain
less than 10 kts from the northeast through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan