604
FXUS63 KTOP 261933
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
233 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms are possible Sunday over portions of
  central Kansas with large hail and damaging winds being the
  main hazards.

- A large upper level system moves into the region Monday, increasing
  the risk for severe storms across eastern Kansas Monday
  afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather will be
  possible.

- Rain and storm chances persist over much of next week as a frontal
  boundary stalls near the I-44 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

19Z Watervapor satellite imagery shows a mid level wave from central
Kansas into southern Oklahoma. Showers have persisted from western
portions of central Kansas into southeast Kansas today. Moisture
advection into east central Kansas along with ascent ahead of the
mid level wave was maintaining the showers as they move north into
east central Kansas later this afternoon and into the evening hours.
Expect chances of light showers to continue through evening and into
the overnight hours before moving off to the east.

On Sunday moisture transport will increase from the southern and
into the central Plains through the day east of the dry line which
sets up across western Kansas into the Big Bend of Texas in the
afternoon. The dryline remains in western Kansas through the day.
Much of the area will experience an increase in moisture through the
day across central and eastern Kansas with dewpoints rising into the
lower to mid 60s. Airmass for much of the day remains capped while
areas near the dryline erode later in the day. A few isolated storms
will be possible and then may move into parts of central and north
central Kansas during the evening hours. Forcing for ascent remains
weak and have lowered probabilities in north central and central
Kansas.

On Monday, a more vigorous wave and associated jet will move out
into the Plains. The energy from the southwest mid level trough will
eject from New Mexico into Nebraska while phasing with a northern
stream trough across the Dakotas. Ahead of the dryline a capping
inversion should hold for much of the day, then erode by 00Z.
Forecast soundings show some curvature in the hodographs with
veering winds in the low levels. Main hazards still look to e large
hail and damaging winds, a few tornadoes will also be possible.
Cells will be discrete and take on supercell Characteristics. Threat
will continue through the evening hours. The pacific front will make
its way through the cwa Monday night as it overtakes the dryline.

Tuesday the frontal boundary sets up southeast of the area across
southeast Kansas into Oklahoma where best chances for
destabilization and convection will be located. Increasing low
level isentropic lift and theta-e advection over the frontal
boundary will lead to elevated showers and storms Tuesday night
focusing across southeast and east central Kansas.

An approaching mid level trough out into the southern and central
Plains on Wednesday will keep chances of showers and a few storms in
the forecast, focused mainly across east central Kansas where the
850mb boundary looks to be located. Precipitation chances continue
through Thursday before ending in the afternoon behind the departing
mid level wave. Friday will be dry with a a return of elevated
showers and storms late Friday night into Saturday on the nose of
the low level jet and northward moving warm front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

MVFR to IFR cigs are expected for this forecast at all
terminals. There may be a few hours of VFR at TOP and FOE
per forecast soundings after 22Z. VCSH will be possible at MHK
after 22Z and at TOP and FOE after 03Z. Winds remain generally
southeast 10kts or less then become more south southeast after
13Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53