313
FXUS63 KTOP 142311
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier for the next couple days before rain and storm chances
return Friday into Saturday with a cold front.

- Warm temperatures persist, with just a brief cooldown this weekend
behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

An amplified pattern remains in place across the CONUS this
morning. A deep upper low is centered over the California coast,
with anomalously strong upper ridging over the Plains and
Mississippi Valley. Some lee troughing is beginning to develop
over the High Plains with the approach of the western trough,
allowing for a warm front to begin to take shape near the
Kansas/Nebraska border. Most of this morning`s shower activity
has shifted north in tandem with the warm front, though
continued isentropic ascent could keep some very isolated
sprinkles around into tomorrow morning. Otherwise, dry and warm
conditions will return for the next couple days as south winds
strengthen behind the warm front and upper ridging remains
nearby. Highs climb into the 80s Wednesday through Friday, with
high dewpoints keeping overnight lows well above average in the
low 60s.

By Friday, the main portion of the western trough will lift
northwards into the northern Plains, dragging a cold front southeast
through the area. Meanwhile, a strong jet streak will quickly
approach from the Pacific northwest, lifting a trailing piece of the
western trough northeast across the Southern Plains. This
complicated interaction means confidence in details is on the lower
end, but we should see rain chances increase Friday into Saturday as
the front passes through. A few thunderstorms could occur as well,
especially Friday evening when instability should peak.

Cooler and drier air will arrive behind the front later Saturday
into Sunday as high pressure moves in. Temperatures won`t drop too
much below average though, as there won`t be much influence from any
true Canadian airmass. Another upper trough approaches for early
next week as a more active and zonal pattern takes hold. Details
remain even further unclear this far out, though we should see
another slight/brief warmup for early next week ahead of this next
system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR expected tonight and Wednesday with passing mid-level clouds
tonight. Southeast winds will remain light tonight before
increasing out of the south slightly tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Teefey