381
FXUS63 KTOP 150831
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
231 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm temperatures continue through the weekend and
  into the early week

- Rain chances increase late Sunday into Monday with many
  locations likely to receive measurable rainfall

- Colder temperatures return for the latter part of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Weak mid level ridging has set in over the Central Plains early
this Friday morning, leaving clear skies and light winds across
the area. A few spots could get some patchy fog before the sun
comes up and better mixing resumes. As the next longwave trof
progresses eastward from the west coast, southwesterly flow
aloft returns, along with the lee surface trof and southerly
winds for our area. Have bumped high temperatures toward higher
percentiles (75th) with better mixing into warmer temps aloft.
Winds stay up enough overnight into Saturday morning to also
keep lows on the warm side. As the longwave trof splits energy
into a deeper low over the southwest and a progressive trof
across the northern states, the latter brings a leading front
across the area on Saturday afternoon, with a few model members
producing enough lift and saturation for a few showers or
possibly a rumble of thunder. Most solutions look rather dry and
am not highly confident in this scenario.

Much better chances for rain come later Sunday, after one more
day of warmer highs before the southwesterly trof approaches
later in the day. System has slowed a bit from previous runs,
and now starts better chances for measurable rainfall generally
around midnight and through the day Monday, moving south to
north across eastern Kansas. Precipitable water is running well
above normal, and the residence time is long as the low moves
slowly SW to NE over the forecast area. 25th to 75th percentiles
for QPF for Monday afternoon near Topeka is .93 to 1.71, with a
mean of 1.31, and that`s after a morning where those ranges are
from roughly .5 to 1.3 inches. Would anticipate locally heavy
rainfall in areas where showers train over the same spots
through the day. While not terribly unstable, the lift is
strong and would support sustained rain showers through the day
with an occasional rumble of thunder in the east and southern
counties where some low end instability resides. Tight pressure
gradients with the compact low will also make for breezy
conditions out of the south, gradually becoming easterly, before
switching from the west as the system passes east and north
late Monday evening.

Models have shifted into slightly better agreement with a second
progressive system that clips the area late Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. The EC had been slower and more
amplified but has shifted more toward an open wave and is
quicker, similar to the GFS. QPF amounts are very low with the
second wave, although the column is cold enough that some
snowflakes may fall mixed with rain as it passes.

Quieter and colder weather is expected to finish out the week,
as northwesterly flow aloft drives colder air into the plains
states, before the flow becomes more zonal toward the weekend.
Highs are forecast in the 40s with overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 927 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

No significant changes to the going forecast. VFR conditions
expected with wind increasing from the SSE into midday tomorrow.
There could be an hour or so of very shallow ground fog mainly
around the KTOP terminal in the morning but probability remains
low.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Craven
AVIATION...Drake