574
FXUS63 KTOP 281740
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1140 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire forecast area
 today.

-Rain and a few storms are possible (50% chance) Sunday night.

-Another round of rain is likely (80% chance) Tuesday and
 Tuesday night. A brief switch to snow could occur as the system
 departs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Today, an H5 low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes
region, bringing a surface trough axis and a trailing cold front
through northeast KS. Winds will increase as boundary layer mixing
commences this morning, while shifting from the west-southwest to
the northwest as the trough comes through. Temperatures warm quickly
to near 70 for highs and mixing to nearly 700 mb will bring
drier air toward the surface. These conditions will lead to
elevated fire danger, prompting the need for a Red Flag Warning
area-wide today (see the fire discussion below for more
details).

A Canadian-based surface ridge then slides into the Midwest
tomorrow behind today`s front, bringing a cooler air mass into
the area. Temperatures have been trending downward slightly for
tomorrow, with highs now expected to range from low 40s in far
northeast KS, to near 50 degrees in central KS. Meanwhile, a
compact H5 closed low will come onshore in southern California,
then quickly move over the southwestern CONUS and toward KS on
Sunday as a more amplified upper trough digs over the western
CONUS. The track of the low continues to vary with model runs,
but have noticed a return to a northern solution, bringing the
system right over the state while it takes on a bit of a
negative tilt. Rain chances will increase late Sunday as mid-
level ascent increases with the approach of the wave. Steepening
mid-level lapse rates and some elevated instability could also
lead to a few storms developing Sunday night.

Next workweek will start dry and warm. Southerly flow will
advect moisture into the region as lee cyclogenesis ramps up
ahead of the approaching western system. The area could
initially be in the dry slot of the system on Tuesday before
POPs increase midday and afternoon as mid-level moisture fills
in near and west of the passing surface low. Once again, a few
storms will be possible with instability present. There is also
potential for heavy rainfall, especially in far eastern sections
of KS. The LREF Grand Ensemble shows a 30 to 40 percent chance
for at least one inch of QPF through Tuesday night in eastern
KS, while NBM probabilities are closer to 50 percent for the
same area. A few snow showers could mix in late Tuesday night as
cooler air starts to filter in. Accumulations should be minor.
Drier conditions are then expected midweek with temperatures
near climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions continue. With the sfc trough moving across the
area currently, winds should turn to the NW early in the period
with gusts becoming more prevalent thereafter. Gusts in the
20-25 kt range will be common for much of the afternoon, then
diminish around sundown. Light northerly winds prevail the rest
of the period with some high clouds overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Updated at 335 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Very high to extreme fire danger conditions are expected this
afternoon. Confidence is high that temperatures will warm to
near 70 degrees today. Efficient boundary layer mixing will lead
to drier air mixing down to the surface. Thus, minimum relative
humidity values will be near 20 percent. In the meantime, winds
will shift from the southwest to the northwest midday and
increase. Sustained winds should range from 10 to 20 with gusts
as high as 35 mph in northern KS, and as high as 30 mph south
of Interstate 70. Given these weather conditions combined with
drying fuels, a Red Flag Warning has been issued from 10 AM to 8
PM in coordination with surrounding offices.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Picha
FIRE WEATHER...Teefey