Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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120 FXUS63 KTOP 061147 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 647 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions and a north wind this afternoon could elevated fire danger, but not expected to be hazardous. - Slightly above average temperatures to continue for the next week with dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Taking a look at some synoptic features around the CONUS, a compact upper low is shown pushing its way east across the northern Great Lakes, weak zonal flow set up over much of the southern third of the country, mid-level ridging building across the PNW and deepening tropical low that continues to fester in the Gulf. Across Kansas, a cold front has made its way through the area and beginning to advect in a cooler and dry airmass from the north. For the remainder of the day, expect surface high pressure to build in across the central Plains, keeping winds out of the north and skies clear. Temperatures by peak heating should feel much more pleasant this afternoon than last, topping out in the upper 70s. Dewpoints during the afternoon should dip into the 20s and 30s as a result of afternoon mixing and dry air advection. This should push RH values into the teens and low 20 percent range creating some elevated fire danger concerns. That said, the fire danger threat should not be hazardous with the lack of strong and gusty winds, but a persistent 10-15 mph north wind could make containing fires on the ground more of a hassle. Outdoor burning should be avoided to mitigate fires getting out of control. Not many changes for the extended forecast with surface ridging hanging around the area until Tuesday, keeping afternoon highs in the upper 70s. After Tuesday, temperatures should creep back into the mid to upper 80s as flow returns to the south and mid-level heights increase. Chances for precipitation will also be hard to come by as limited moisture and forcing mechanisms move across the central Plains. With another extended period of dry weather and vegetation continuing to dry out, will continue to monitor the risks for elevated fire danger concerns. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 VFR TAFs will continue at all sites through the period. Winds increase out of the north late this morning, sustained between 10-12 knots before falling below 10 knots by sunset. The remainder of the TAF will see clear skies and light winds slowly veering towards the northeast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Elevated fire danger is possible this afternoon for the entire forecast area. Very dry air advecting into the area with the surface ridge will plummet afternoon RH values into the 15-20 percent range. Winds will increase out of the north between 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph. Since winds are not near Red Flag criteria, not expecting too many glaring concerns with large fire potential, but outdoor burning should be avoided if possible. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Griesemer FIRE WEATHER...Griesemer