562
FXUS63 KTOP 041115
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
615 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms will gradually dissipate this morning.

- Below-normal temperatures continue today before a gradual
  warming trend commences Tuesday through late in the week with
  hot and humid conditions returning.

- Low chances for rain this week, with the best chance (15-25%)
  coming Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Northwest flow aloft holds across the Central Plains this morning
with ridging over the southwest CONUS. A couple of embedded
perturbations in the northwest flow are noted on water vapor imagery
along with an MCV that is meandering near the KS/MO state line.
Showers across east-central Kansas remain in proximity to the MCV,
but are weakening and exiting the area. A stronger line of storms is
moving across southeast Nebraska and is beginning to track more
southerly along the instability gradient that extends into north
central Kansas. This complex of storms will run into a less unstable
airmass with southeastward extent, but could sustain itself along
the instability gradient before encountering this less unstable
airmass and eventually dissipating. These storms could produce gusty
winds and brief heavy rainfall if they maintain intensity as they
move into the area. Otherwise, the majority of the daytime hours are
expected to be dry with more sunshine than yesterday bumping
temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s this afternoon.

The aforementioned ridge across the southwestern CONUS builds
northeast towards the Central Plains and southerly low-level
flow returns on Tuesday. A warming trend commences as a result
with highs in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday climbing back into
the 90s Thursday through the end of the week. Humidity also
returns with dewpoints around 70 degrees, resulting in heat
index values of 95-105 degrees Thursday and Friday. Guidance
continues to suggest a few perturbations could round the ridge
and generate showers and storms at times with highest chances
(15-25%) currently coming Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
stronger wave moving across the Northern Plains this weekend
works to flatten the ridge and push a cold front into the area.
This brings slightly cooler temperatures along with increased
chances for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

VFR conditions expected. Showers will impact KMHK for a couple
of hours this morning and may briefly reduce VSBY. Can`t rule
out a lightning strike or two near KMHK as well. Think showers
dissipate before they reach KTOP/KFOE, so have kept a dry forecast
at these sites. Winds remain light from the ESE through the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan