023
FXUS63 KTOP 102306
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
606 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog may form early Saturday morning mainly over east-central
  Kansas areas and along low-lying river valley areas.

- Warm through the weekend and windy out of the south especially
  on Sunday.

- Cooler into next week with the best rain chances on Monday
  ranging from 30-40% across the area.

- Warming again by the end of next week as another trough digs
  into the western states.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Across the CONUS this afternoon a pronounced ridge remains in place
through the southern Plains into the northern Plains. An upper low
and associated trough is translating across the Great Lakes region
with another deep upper low and associated trough moving onshore
into the Pacific northwest region. A modified cold front has shifted
just south of the local area with associated low clouds along the
front also south and southeast of the area. A few afternoon showers
have begun to form along the boundary to the south along with the
heating of the day.

For this evening into the overnight period, temperatures still
holding above seasonal norms with afternoon highs into the low 80s.
As the surface ridge continues to expand overnight, dewpoints fall
into the 50s. Expecting high clouds to spill over the ridge into the
overnight period, but there may be a long enough window of
radiational cooling over far eastern areas to allow for patchy fog
to form by around sunrise. Fog over western areas may be harder to
come by and would likely be limited to low-lying areas if it does
begin to form as clouds continue to move in from the west. Overnight
lows in the 50s still hold above seasonal normals.

Good concensus remains in the short-term regarding the ridge
flattening and shifting east through the weekend and breaking down
as the western trough moves east and lifts into the northern Plains
helping to push a cold front into the area by Sunday night into
Monday. Ahead of the frontal system, expect highs to push 90 by
Sunday with a strong south wind aided by mixing down the LLJ winds
by mid to late morning into the afternoon as a lee trough deepens
through the weekend.

Monday, the best chances for rain comes into the morning and through
the early afternoon periods. Ensemble data still suggests that
overall rainfall amounts remain low generally under total
accumulations of around a half inch over any one location. After the
front moves through it stalls after becoming detached from the upper
flow and returns by mid to late week as a warm front as another
western trough digs into the intermountain-West. Temperatures
rebound again above seasonal norms as an active pattern remains in
place with position and timing of any additional showers and storms
forming in question with more spread among various ensemble
data.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions primarily expected through the period with
increasing cirrus canopy and light veering winds overnight. The
exception may be at TOP where shallow ground fog may form
between 10-12Z, briefly reducing visibilities.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Blair