569
FXUS63 KTOP 241708
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1208 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below average temperatures persist through the week.

- A few light rain showers today and tomorrow, mainly towards
central Kansas.

- Opportunity for more widespread rain later in the week,
  particularly Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A large upper low continues to deepen over the Great Lakes this
morning. At the surface, the strong subsidence on the back side of
the trough has helped create a strong area of high pressure over the
Northern Plains. Cooler and drier air continues to press southwards
ahead of this high. With multiple weak perturbations helping to
reinforce the main longwave trough over the eastern US, we will see
an extended stay of our chilly (relative to late August norms)
airmass.

As the cool air will stay locked in place, timing the
aforementioned weak disturbances will be the main forecast
challenge through the next week. A pair of these weak systems
will move across southwest Kansas today and again tomorrow.
Given their tracks, and high pressure maintaining dry air over
northeast Kansas, the most widespread and heavy rain will stay
well to our south and west. However some light rain showers will
remain possible, most notably Monday morning southwest of a
Concordia to Ottawa line. Cloud cover will be the main factor in
exactly how cool temperatures stay Sunday and Monday, as more
sun than currently forecast could boost temperatures a few
degrees warmer.

High pressure becomes most prominent over the area Tuesday into
early Wednesday. This should help keep skies clearer, allowing for
slightly warmer afternoons but some of our coolest mornings in
several months. Assuming skies do become mostly clear, not out of
the question to see a few of the typically cooler spots drop into
the 40s!

By late Wednesday into Thursday, confidence continues to increase in
a slightly more amplified mid-level system moving across the state.
There does appear to be a solid signal for moisture advection and
isentropic ascent, supportive of a slow-moving rain band.
Deterministic models indicate there could be a localized axis of one
to several inches of rain, which makes sense given the setup.
However ensemble guidance shows a lot of uncertainty in exactly
where these higher totals will occur, whether farther north over
east-central Kansas or staying south of our area into southeast
Kansas. These differences also play a role in temperature forecasts
for late week, with highs likely staying in the 60s where steady
rain falls but climbing into the 70s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with light southeasterly
wind. A few light rain showers may move into the area this
afternoon, but better chances for showers appear to remain off
to our west. Overnight, more widespread showers are expected
across central Kansas, but there remains high uncertainty as to
how far east they will expand to. Therefore, have elected to
maintain the vicinity mention at KMHK and keep rain out of the
Topeka TAFs at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Jones