246
FXUS63 KTOP 191119
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
519 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Very cold temperatures continue to impact the area through
 early portions of the upcoming workweek.

-Light snow remains possible in central KS on Monday.

-Temperatures warm back above freezing midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

A mid-level broad troughing pattern persists across the CONUS today.
At the surface, high pressure continues to expand southward over the
forecast area and north winds remain breezy this morning. A very
cold air mass will continue to impact the area today with
temperatures starting off in the single digits and only warming into
the teens this afternoon. Wind chill values early today are
below zero and will remain there until later in the afternoon.
Winds will be calm or nearly calm into early Monday so the wind
chill may not be quite as extreme tomorrow morning, although
temperatures will still be very cold.

The coldest conditions are still expected Tuesday morning as a 1045
mb ridge moves in behind another trough axis. There remains some
uncertainty in exact temperatures given a continued 10 to 12 degree
spread in the NBM 25th to 75th percentiles, both with morning lows
and afternoon highs. For now, have kept the actual forecast values
close to the 50th percentile, putting morning lows 5 to 15 degrees
below zero (for actual temperatures) for much of the area! Any
light breeze will drop wind chills into advisory criteria, making
an advisory very possible, mainly for north-central and far
northern KS. A gradual climb in afternoon temps should commence
Tuesday with highs currently expected to reach the low 20s.

Another focus of the forecast is the chance for light snow on Monday
in central KS. Models continue to indicate light snow, with both the
HREF and long-range grand ensembles showing a 60-80% chance for
at least a dusting. However, chances for half an inch have
decreased with the latest model runs to about 10-20% chances.
Soundings show a brief period of just a few hours with enough
lift and saturation to get light snow. Thus, the thinking is
that a dusting of snow will occur Monday afternoon from portions
of Ottawa County southeast through Lyon County.

Temperatures warm to above freezing starting midweek with a WAA
pattern. A few weak boundaries may move through the area late in the
week. Deterministic runs of the GFS and EC both hint at light
QPF occurring near boundaries, mainly around the Thursday
timeframe. Ensembles have not yet picked up on these
possibilities and confidence is not currently high enough to
include POPs for later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Other than a SCT/BKN deck of near-MVFR clouds at KMHK early
this morning, VFR is expected this TAF period. North-northwest
winds will increase slightly into midday before decreasing again
late this afternoon and becoming nearly calm this evening and
tonight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey