248
FXUS63 KTOP 101735
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms build back in this evening into Monday morning.
  Rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour could lead to flooding.
  A few strong to severe storms with gusty wind to 60 mph are
  possible as well.

- Lingering showers and thunderstorms possible through Tuesday,
  then dry and warmer to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Early this morning a complex of thunderstorms was moving across
northeast Kansas. It has had a history of producing wind 60-80
mph, but latest trends indicate it is becoming more elevated and
the strongest winds are likely not making it down to the
surface. Generally, around 40 mph wind and heavy rain can be
expected as this line moves through this morning. Occasional
showers and thunderstorms are possible through the day today as
we remain under the influence of a longwave trough to our west
and several mid-level waves ride through the mean flow aloft.
The main area of focus will be along and north of a warm front
that sets up across central and eastern Kansas. Models have
come in better agreement with the position of the front now that
they are resolving the morning complex of storms. The most
likely area for the front to reside later today is along the
I-35 corridor. More robust storms are expected to form along
the front as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. With
warm/moist advection continuing through the day PWATs well above
2 inches are likely. Strong thunderstorms with rain rates of
1-3 inches an hour are likely. An occasional wind gust around 60
mph is also possible in the strongest storms. A general one to
three inches of rain is expected across the area through Monday
morning, but higher amounts are possible in areas with training
storms. The Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area
through Monday morning. Some lingering showers and storms are
possible through Tuesday as some weak mid/upper-level forcing
remains overhead. An upper-level ridge is favored to build back
in by the end of the week, leading to warmer temperatures once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions expected until showers and storms build back
north towards terminals overnight. Uncertainty remains in the
northern extent of this precipitation and storms may stay just
south of terminals. Have included a PROB30 group for now. MVFR
cigs and MVFR/IFR VSBY are likely within storms if they reach
TAF sites before precipitation ends around 13z Monday. Some
guidance suggest MVFR cigs stick around through the morning
hours Monday, but confidence in this is too low for inclusion.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Flanagan