091
FXUS21 KWNC 271838
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT March 27 2025

SYNOPSIS: Heavy precipitation is possible across parts of the east-central
Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during week-2 associated with forecast mid-level low
pressure over the West and predicted surface low pressure development in the
Southern Rockies and Great Plains. This pattern would bring elevated chances
for high winds to parts of the Four Corners, Central and Southern Rockies and
Great Plains. Snow is also possible associated with these features in higher
elevations of the interior West.

HAZARDS

Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern Plains, Lower
and Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Southeast, Fri-Sun, Apr 4-6.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, and
Mississippi Valleys, Southern Plains, Southeast, and Southern Appalachians,
Fri-Mon, Apr 4-7.

Slight risk of high winds for parts of the Great Plains, Rockies, and Four
Corners region, Fri-Sun, Apr 4-6.

Slight risk of periods of heavy snow for higher elevations of the Central and
Southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest, Fri-Sat, Apr 4-5.

Flooding possible for portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY MARCH 30 - THURSDAY APRIL 03:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR FRIDAY APRIL 04 - THURSDAY APRIL 10: Dynamical guidance is coming into
better agreement for a series of surface lows to develop across the Interior
West and in the lee of the Rockies associated with a mid-level trough that is
forecast to progress eastward into the Plains. The ECENS and Canadian Ensemble
have been forecasting this pattern for the past couple of days and the GEFS has
come into better agreement today. The ECENS based Probabilistic Extremes Tool
(PET) brings 30-40% chances for 3 day precipitation amounts to exceed the 85th
climatological percentile. Raw guidance from the ECENS and European AIFS would
bring multiple days of heavy rain to portions of the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys. The GEFS based reforecast, raw guidance, and height pattern
are more supportive of this pattern relative to yesterday and the GEFS PET
highlights at least a 20% chance of 3 day amounts exceeding the 85th
percentile. Therefore, a moderate risk of heavy precipitation is posted for Apr
4-6 for portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Within this
hazard, a flooding possible hazard is also posted where water models highlight
the strongest chances where flooding may occur. Finally, a broader slight risk
is posted for portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi Valleys,
Southern Plains, and Southern Appalachians, and Southeast, Apr 4-7. The ECENS
is more supportive to the heavy precipitation risk extending into the middle of
week-2 relative to the GEFS, which begins building mid-level ridging into the
western Plains by day 10.



The surface low pressure development previously described may support periods
of high winds across parts of the central and western CONUS. The ECENS PET
continues to highlight an at least 30% chance of winds exceeding the 85th
percentile across parts of the Four Corners and Plains. There is a bit better
agreement in raw model guidance for enhanced winds all the way to the Canadian
border today. As such, the slight risk of high winds is posted and expanded in
coverage to include parts of the Northern High Plains, Apr 4-6. Anomalously
warm temperatures are likely for portions of western and southern Texas. These
temperatures combined with antecedent dry conditions and enhanced wind speeds
increases the potential for wildfires throughout the week-2 period, especially
across the Southern Plains and eastern Four Corners region.



These features, and enhanced onshore flow from the week-1 period to bring
increasing mid-level moisture across the Rockies, supports a slight risk of
heavy snow for the higher elevations of the interior West. This is supported
among the probabilistic extremes tools and raw guidance. Therefore, a slight
risk of heavy snow remains posted for portions of the Four Corners and Central
and Southern Rockies, Apr 4-5.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

$$