783
FXUS21 KWNC 131801
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT October 13 2025

SYNOPSIS: A strong area of mid-level low pressure is expected to move into the
Bering Sea and eventually the Gulf of Alaska, continuing a stormy trend across
southwestern Alaska. This will bring increased chances for high winds and heavy
precipitation to parts of the state. By the middle of the period, this area of
mid-level low pressure will help to bring increased chances for strong winds
and heavy precipitation to parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
An area of mid-level low pressure over the central contiguous U.S (CONUS) early
in the period is expected to bring increased chances of high winds over parts
of the Rockies and into the Great Plains.

HAZARDS

Moderate risk of high winds for the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Bering Sea
Coast of Mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Oct 21-22.

Slight risk of high winds for Aleutians, southern Mainland, and parts of
Southeast Alaska, Tue-Thu, Oct 21-23.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation for the southern Mainland and Southeast
Alaska, Tue-Wed, Oct 21-22.

Slight risk of high winds for many parts of the Rocky Mountains and Plains,
Tue-Wed, Oct 21-22.

Slight risk of high winds for coastal Washington, Oregon, and parts of northern
California, Wed-Sat, Oct 22-25.

Slight risk of heavy precipitation northwestern Oregon and western Washington,
Thu-Sat, Oct 23-25.

Slight risk of heavy snow for portions of the Cascade Mountains and the
Northern Rockies, Thu-Sat, Oct 23-25.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 16 - MONDAY OCTOBER 20:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 21 - MONDAY OCTOBER 27: A deep 500-hPa trough is forecast
to progress across the Gulf of Alaska during the week-2 period and into the
Pacific Northwest by middle of week-2. A weaker mid-level trough initially over
the interior West early in the period will progress across the northern tier of
the CONUS. Meanwhile, weak ridging develops across the Gulf Coast and Southeast.



In Alaska, there is strong agreement on a robust mid-level trough and
associated surface low pressure. The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE all support
increased chances for one or more surface low pressure systems to track into
the Bering Sea and/or the Gulf of Alaska. There remains some degree of
uncertainty on the exact track of any surface low pressure but confidence is
fairly high for a potentially impactful storm system. Therefore, a moderate
risk of high winds is posted for the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and the
Bering Sea coast areas, for Oct 21-22. A broader slight risk of high winds
remains forecast encompassing the Moderate risk area and extending along the
southern Mainland coastline for Oct 21-23. A slight risk of heavy precipitation
is also forecast for parts of southern Mainland Alaska, from Prince William
Sound through Southeast Alaska for Oct 21-22. Probabilistic Extremes Tools
(PETS) from the GEFS and ECENS support an enhanced risk of 3-day precipitation
amounts exceeding the 85th climatological percentile and 3 inches in places
within the highlighted area.



Across the western CONUS, mid-level troughing progressing eastward may bring
elevated chances for high winds to portions of the Rockies and Great Plains.
The GEFS and ECENS PETs support an enhanced risk for winds exceeding the 85th
climatological percentile across the region early in week-2. Therefore, a
slight risk of high winds is posted for the aforementioned regions Oct 21-22.



By the middle of week-2, the mid-level trough initially bringing high winds and
precipitation to parts of Alaska shifts towards the Pacific Northwest. There
remains some uncertainty in over magnitude of any potential system but tools
from the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE all support an increasing risk of high winds,
heavy precipitation, and heavy snow in the higher elevations. The support for
this solution has been growing over the past couple of days. Therefore, a
slight risk of high winds is posted for Oct 22-25 for the coastal portions of
Washington, Oregon, and parts of northern California. A slight risk of heavy
precipitation is also posted for northwestern Oregon western Washington for Oct
23-25. Meanwhile, in the higher elevations of the Cascades and Northern Rockies
a slight risk of heavy snow is highlighted for Oct 23-25.



The Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) risk was discontinued for Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley today as temperatures and some precipitation during
the next two weeks may limit any rapid expansion of drought by the time week-2
period begins.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

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