304
FNUS75 KTFX 132156
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for South Crow Creek Prepardness Review...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
356 PM MDT Tue May 13 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

After a steady rain/snow mix to start the day on Wednesday,
numerous rain showers with a low (10%) risk of a thunderstorm will
repeatedly move through the area as showers move into the area
from the northwest. With persistent cloud cover and precipitation,
temperatures will remain cool on Wednesday with highs only
reaching the upper 40s to near 50. Showers will become less
widespread Wednesday evening and overnight as our weather system
moves further away from the area, though rain showers (and
possibly some snow mixing in around sunrise) will continue through
the day on Thursday. Expect winds to remain on the light side
through the next 48 hours, though a few gusts to 30 mph will be
possible around any thunderstorms that manage to form Wednesday
evening.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow showers likely
                    early in the morning, then changing to rain
                    before 8am. Rain continues through the day.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Chance of lightning.8 percent.
Max temperature.....48-53.
Min humidity........50-55 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.18 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.
Visibility..........3 decreasing to 1.00 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 3 late in the morning increasing
                    to 5 around noon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........84  100 93  82  92  86  91  91  91  91  91  91
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RS  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  70  70  90  90  90  90  90  90
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............39  40  41  42  43  45  46  47  48  49  49  49
RH..............79  79  78  74  73  70  65  64  60  55  54  56
Surface wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Surface wnd gst.15  20  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25  25
Visibility (sm).3   1.0 1.0 2.0 3   3   5   5   6   6   6   6

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the evening, then slight chance of rain showers
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Chance of lightning.19 percent.
Min temperature.....36-41.
Max humidity........65-70 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph shifting to the west around 5 mph
                    after 3 am.
Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.
Visibility..........10 early in the evening.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76  76  76  78  78  78  57  57  57  64  64  64
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  50  50  50  50  20  20  20  20  20  20
Chc of ltng (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............48  47  45  44  43  42  41  40  40  40  39  38
RH..............58  60  63  65  67  67  68  67  66  65  66  67
Surface wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Surface wnd spd.15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5   5
Surface wnd gst.30  30  30  25  25  25  20  20  20  15  15  15
Visibility (sm).10

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of snow
                    showers early in the morning. Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Chance of lightning.11 percent.
Max temperature.....49-54.
Min humidity........45-50 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.
Snowfall amount.....0.0 inches.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76  76  76  77  77  77  82  82  82  82  82  82
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RS  RS  RS  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  50  50  50  50  70  70  70  70  70  70
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............38  40  41  43  45  46  47  49  49  50  51  51
RH..............68  66  63  61  59  57  55  54  53  52  51  50
Surface wnd dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Surface wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20
Visibility (sm).

$$
Forecaster...Ludwig
Requested by...Philip Knaub
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 2513874.0/TFX
.DELDT 05/13/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL philip.knaub@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov