401
FNUS75 KTFX 181101
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Elk Creek RX Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
501 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MDT on September 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A fall storm system will continue to bring showers to the area
this morning before showers decrease and end this afternoon, but
elevated humidity and cloud-cover will continue through this
evening. Gusty northwest winds will continue through early this
evening, particularly in exposed locations. Drier weather is
expected Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers in
                    the morning, decreasing this afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....58-63.
Min humidity........52-57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth early in the morning.

TIME (MDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........95  95  96  87  93  86  85  87  77  84  81
Weather cov.....CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............51  52  53  53  54  55  58  59  59  60  59
RH..............88  82  83  74  71  68  62  58  57  57  57
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..15  20  20  20  20  15  20  15  15  20  15
20 FT wind gust.30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 2.5 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.0
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25
Haines index....M   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....45-50.
Max humidity........65-70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 mph
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........81  87  87  67  81  83  71  51  38  51  35  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............58  57  54  53  52  52  51  50  50  49  49  49
RH..............57  63  65  67  67  67  66  68  69  69  69  68
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.30  30  30  30  30  30  20  20  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.25  20  15  15  20  20  15  15  15  20  15  15
Haines index....2   2   2   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....62-67.
Min humidity........34-39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 25 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth early in the morning.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........13  16  6   13  3   10  16  16  16  30  30  30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............48  47  49  52  55  58  61  62  63  64  64  64
RH..............70  70  66  61  57  52  49  45  42  39  37  37
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  25
Haines index....M   M   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...Hoenisch
Requested by...Matthew Baker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422626.0/TFX
.DELDT 09/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Matthew.baker2@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov